Markets suggest a Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 58.33% to 30%.
Prediction markets are now indicating a significantly higher probability of the Democratic Party winning the NY-03 House seat. This follows a dramatic 24-hour shift where the ‘No’ outcome—predictin…
Markets suggest a Corey Booker Presidential run before 2027 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome crashing from 30.61% to 5.55%. This shift follows a period where related news has highlig…
Markets suggest turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election being less than 55% is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 82.47% to 87.65%. This shift …
Markets suggest an Israeli strike on Lebanon on January 7, 2026, is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 58.17% to 65% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent reports of diplomati…
Markets suggest a Ukraine peace referendum by June 30 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 71.7% to 61.5% (-10.2 percentage points) in 24 hours. This shift follows re…
Markets suggest a Bangladesh Nationalist Party win is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 21.3% to 24%. This shift follows recent political developments concerning alliance nego…
Markets suggest Israel striking Gaza on January 3, 2026, is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome declining from 46.5% to 18.5% over the past 7 days. This shift follows a week of bearish sen…
Prediction markets suggest a Democratic victory in the NJ-09 House seat is becoming significantly more likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome surging from 57.2% to 72.5% in just 24 hours. This move acceler…
Markets suggest the Republican Party holding exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 24.2% to 21.5% in 24 hours. This s…