Markets suggest Luís Marques Mendes qualifying for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 12.5% to 35.5%.
Markets suggest a Democratic Party win in the NV-04 House seat is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome declining from 52.15% to 47%. This shift appears to follow recent election news, poten…
Markets suggest a Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026, is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome accelerating from 61.18% to 93.15% in 24 hours. This dramatic shift follows…
Markets suggest Luís Marques Mendes winning more than 26% of votes in the first round is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 7.05% to 14%. This shift follows a direct appeal fr…
Markets suggest Nicolás Maduro’s release from custody is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from approximately 13.6% to 14.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent news of his cap…
Prediction markets suggest Tom Willis’s chances of securing the Republican Senate nomination in West Virginia are becoming significantly LESS likely. The probability (‘Yes’ outcome) collapsed from …
Prediction markets indicate a Trump nominee for Federal Reserve Chair on January 20, 2026, is becoming increasingly unlikely. The ‘No’ outcome has surged from 50% to 87.5% over the past week, thoug…
Markets suggest turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election being at least 50% is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 93.3% to 85.0%. This shift fo…
Markets suggest Donald Trump announcing a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 20.83% to 11.55% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest María Corina Machado’s entry into Venezuela by January 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 81.2% to 39% in 24 hours. This shift follows significa…