Markets suggest Trump invoking War Powers against Venezuela is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 4.03% to 12.00%. This shift follows a flurry of recent news, including legisl…
Markets suggest a Trump visit to Minneapolis-Saint Paul by January 16 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 86.01% to 80% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest Khamenei’s potential ousting by January 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 8.22% to 13.45%. This shift follows renewed reports of widespread protests and…
Markets suggest an X ban in the U.K. by March 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 89% to 83%. This shift follows escalating tensions between Elon Musk and the UK governme…
Markets suggest a Russian strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 78.2% to 65.5% in 24 hours. This shift appears to follow rec…
Markets suggest a US-Iran military engagement is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising sharply from 33.0% to 64.5% in the last 24 hours. This shift follows intensified speculation reg…
Markets suggest a meeting between Trump and Reza Pahlavi is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome declining from 75.7% to 68.5% in the last 24 hours. This shift follows continued reports of u…
Markets suggest a US or Israeli strike on Iran by January 12, 2026, is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 19.7% to 27.5%.
Prediction markets suggest the passage of Italy’s Nordio judicial reform is becoming significantly more likely. The ‘Yes’ outcome surged from 50.5% to 73.5% over the past week, including a sharp 15…
Markets suggest Miguel Díaz-Canel’s removal as Cuba’s leader is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome declining from 55.9% to 50.5% in 24 hours. This shift appears to follow reports concerni…