Briefing: Market Odds for Ukraine Security Guarantee Surge 27% in 24 Hours, Hinting at Backchanne…

Prediction markets are indicating an increased likelihood of a European country providing a formal, binding security guarantee to Ukraine. The probability, represented by the ‘Yes’ outcome, has jum…

Briefing: Sharp reversal: Cotrim’s 20%+ vote share odds flip in 24 hours amid campaign controversies

Markets suggest João Cotrim de Figueiredo winning more than 20% of votes in the first round is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 18.05% to 15.8% in 24 hours. This sharp shif…