Prediction markets suggest Alphabet becoming the world’s second-largest company by Jan 31 is now seen as significantly more likely. The probability of this *not* happening (the ‘No’ outcome) has cr…
Markets suggest Israel striking more than one country in January 2026 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome (implying a strike on >1 country) declining from 62.73% to 54%.
Markets suggest Amazon (AMZN) being the top performing Magnificent 7 company is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 63.9% to 60.5%. This shift follows recent discussions aroun…
Markets suggest Anutin Charnvirakul becoming the next prime minister of Thailand is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 65.85% to 62.5%. This shift follows a series of related…
Markets suggest Russia capturing all of Stepnohirsk is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome declining from 42.0% to 33.0% in 24 hours. This shift follows related context regarding risks for …
Markets suggest António José Seguro winning between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 8.6% to 14%. This shift follows new polling d…
Markets suggest a US strike on Cuba by December 31 is becoming significantly MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 85.8% to 80.5% in 24 hours. This sharp move accelerates a pre-existing n…
Markets suggest a Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in January is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 91.64% to 86.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows a significant bearish reversal, despit…
Markets suggest an Israeli strike on Iran is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 27.8% to 53.5%. This shift follows escalating reports of US strategic movements and Iranian war…
Markets suggest Apple releasing a new product line before 2027 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 80.1% to 67.5%. This shift follows recent reports of product delays and p…