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Category: Trump

Background: Why Prediction Markets Are Repricing Trump’s Somaliland Recognition

Posted on December 30, 2025 by Writer

Markets suggest Trump recognizing Somaliland before 2027 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from approximately 25.1% to 24%. This shift follows reports of global outcry after I…

This entry was posted in Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Trump, World and tagged Market Shift, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.

Briefing: Sharp Reversal: US Drug Boat Strike Odds Flip in 24 Hours

Posted on December 30, 2025 by Writer

Markets suggest three or four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026, are becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 32.62% to 20%. Th…

This entry was posted in Geopolitics, Trump, Venezuela and tagged Market Shift, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.

Background: Why Prediction Markets Are Repricing US Drug Boat Strike Odds

Posted on December 30, 2025 by Writer

Markets suggest three or four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026, are becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 32.62% to 20%. Th…

This entry was posted in Geopolitics, Trump, Venezuela and tagged Market Shift, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.

Briefing: Trump’s Venezuela Actions Shift Market: US Oil Ship Seizure Odds Fall

Posted on December 29, 2025 by Writer

Markets suggest U.S. forces seizing another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 35.8% to 64.1%. This shift follows recent reports of U.S. ac…

This entry was posted in Geopolitics, Trump, Venezuela, World and tagged Breaking Signal, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.

Background: Why Prediction Markets Are Repricing Venezuela Oil Ship Seizure Odds Downwards

Posted on December 29, 2025 by Writer

Markets suggest U.S. forces seizing another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 35.8% to 64.1%. This shift follows recent reports of U.S. ac…

This entry was posted in Geopolitics, Trump, Venezuela, World and tagged Breaking Signal, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.

Briefing: Sharp reversal: Trump pardon odds for Stefan Brodie flip in 24 hours

Posted on December 29, 2025 by Writer

Markets suggest Trump pardoning Stefan Brodie before 2027 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 40.8% to 37.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows a week-long positive trend, ind…

This entry was posted in Geopolitics, Trump and tagged Market Shift, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.

Background: Why prediction markets are repricing Trump pardon odds for Stefan Brodie

Posted on December 29, 2025 by Writer

Markets suggest Trump pardoning Stefan Brodie before 2027 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 40.8% to 37.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows a week-long positive trend, ind…

This entry was posted in Geopolitics, Trump and tagged Market Shift, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.

Briefing: Sharp reversal: Ukraine ceasefire odds flip in 24 hours

Posted on December 28, 2025 by Writer

Markets suggest Ukraine officially agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework by March 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 27.8% to 44.5% in 24 hours.

This entry was posted in Geopolitics, Putin, Trump, Ukraine, World, Zelenskyy and tagged Market Shift, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.

Background: Sharp Reversal: Why Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Are Falling in Prediction Markets

Posted on December 28, 2025 by Writer

Markets suggest Ukraine officially agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework by March 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 27.8% to 44.5% in 24 hours.

This entry was posted in Geopolitics, Putin, Trump, Ukraine, World, Zelenskyy and tagged Market Shift, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.

Briefing: Sharp reversal: Odds flip against US seizure of Venezuela oil ship by Dec 29

Posted on December 27, 2025 by Writer

Prediction markets suggest a significant reduction in the perceived likelihood of U.S. forces seizing a Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 29. The ‘Yes’ outcome for this event has plummeted by 2…

This entry was posted in Geopolitics, Trump, Venezuela, World and tagged Market Shift, Priority: URGENT. Bookmark the permalink.
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