Markets suggest an Israel strike on Iraq is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 12.64% to 18% in 24 hours. This shift follows a week-long downtrend and appears to coincide with…
Markets suggest Florida enacting a redistricting law is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 58.4% to 68.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent news regarding a specia…
Markets suggest a Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win in the 2026 Thai legislative election is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 67.8% to 74% in 24 hours. This shift follows r…
Markets suggest an Insurrection Act invocation by March 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 17.0% to 29.0%. This shift follows recent news regarding National Guard prepar…
Markets suggest Israel striking more than one country in January 2026 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome (implying a strike on >1 country) declining from 62.73% to 54%.
Markets suggest Daniel Biss’s nomination for IL-09 is becoming significantly MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome plummeting from 63.6% to 32.5% in the last 24 hours. This sharp reversal follows a ma…
Markets suggest Anutin Charnvirakul becoming the next prime minister of Thailand is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 65.85% to 62.5%. This shift follows a series of related…
Markets suggest Russia capturing all of Stepnohirsk is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome declining from 42.0% to 33.0% in 24 hours. This shift follows related context regarding risks for …
Markets suggest António José Seguro winning between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 8.6% to 14%. This shift follows new polling d…
Markets suggest a US strike on Cuba by December 31 is becoming significantly MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 85.8% to 80.5% in 24 hours. This sharp move accelerates a pre-existing n…