Markets suggest Israel striking more than one country in January 2026 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome (implying a strike on >1 country) declining from 62.73% to 54%.
Markets suggest Anutin Charnvirakul becoming the next prime minister of Thailand is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 65.85% to 62.5%. This shift follows a series of related…
Markets suggest António José Seguro winning between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 8.6% to 14%. This shift follows new polling d…
Markets suggest a North Korea missile launch by January 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 57.9% to 58.5%. This shift follows a week-long downtrend for ‘No’ but directly …
Markets suggest Khamenei’s exit as Supreme Leader by March 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome declining from 26.9% to 19.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows widespread protests in Ir…
Markets suggest a Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 58.2% to 64.5%. This shift follows recent political developments, in…
Markets suggest André Ventura winning between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 95.03% to 86.00% in 24 hours. This shift fo…
Markets suggest a US strike on Venezuela by December 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 35% to 51%. This shift follows breaking news of Nicolás Maduro’s capture and aggr…
Markets suggest Luís Marques Mendes winning more than 26% of votes in the first round is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 7.05% to 14%. This shift follows a direct appeal fr…
Markets suggest Thailand striking Cambodia is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 91.3% to 81.0% in 24 hours. This shift follows escalating border tensions and accusations of a…