Markets suggest a U.S. tanker seizure is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 45.82% to 59%. This shift appears to follow recent reports of multiple U.S. tanker seizures in the C…
Prediction markets indicate that Venezuelan crude oil production reaching 1.1m barrels per day in 2026 is becoming significantly LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome plummeting from 52.6% to 42.5% i…
Markets suggest U.S. forces seizing another oil ship by January 31, 2026, is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 43.2% to 53%.
Markets suggest a US strike on Iran is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 29.57% to 65%. This sharp shift follows a series of recent developments suggesting de-escalation of im…
Markets suggest a Trump and Machado handshake lasting 2-6 seconds is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 48.8% to 79.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows fresh reports of …
Prediction markets show the consensus for a U.S. oil ship seizure has collapsed, with the probability plummeting from 80% to 48.5% in the last seven days. This 31.5-point drop signals a dramatic re…
Markets suggest a Trump-announced drug boat strike by January 17, 2026, is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 14.50% to 20.50% in the last 24 hours.
Markets suggest a Trump endorsement for María Corina Machado is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 46.9% to 36.5% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest a charge for doxing the Delta Force commander is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 36.79% to 19.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows news of a Congress…
Markets suggest a US strike on Iran is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 23.66% to 25.5%. This shift follows a week-long decline and coincides with fresh reports of intensifi…