Markets suggest a Russian strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 33.37% to 41.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent reports of Rus…
Markets suggest Russia’s capture of Zarichne is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 95.73% to 96.35%. This shift follows ongoing reports of front-line activity in the broader r…
Markets suggest Ukraine striking another tanker in the Black Sea is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 45.1% to 46%. This shift follows recent reports of drone attacks in the B…
Prediction markets are indicating an increased likelihood of a European country providing a formal, binding security guarantee to Ukraine. The probability, represented by the ‘Yes’ outcome, has jum…
Markets suggest a Russian strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 78.2% to 65.5% in 24 hours. This shift appears to follow rec…
Markets suggest an EU/NATO country announcing a peacekeeping force in Ukraine is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 67.16% to 60.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent disc…
Markets suggest Russia’s capture of Prymorske is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 34.3% to 39.5%. This shift follows recent reports of Russian advances in the specified area.
Markets suggest Russia capturing all of Stepnohirsk is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome declining from 42.0% to 33.0% in 24 hours. This shift follows related context regarding risks for …
Markets suggest a Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026, is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome accelerating from 61.18% to 93.15% in 24 hours. This dramatic shift follows…
Markets suggest a Ukraine peace referendum by June 30 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 71.7% to 61.5% (-10.2 percentage points) in 24 hours. This shift follows re…