Markets suggest a Russian strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 33.37% to 41.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent reports of Rus…
Markets suggest Ukraine striking another tanker in the Black Sea is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 45.1% to 46%. This shift follows recent reports of drone attacks in the B…
Markets suggest United Russia gaining the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 25.9% to 19.5% in 24 hours. This …
Markets suggest a Russian strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 78.2% to 65.5% in 24 hours. This shift appears to follow rec…
Markets suggest an EU/NATO country announcing a peacekeeping force in Ukraine is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 67.16% to 60.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent disc…
Markets suggest Russia’s capture of Prymorske is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 34.3% to 39.5%. This shift follows recent reports of Russian advances in the specified area.
Markets suggest Russia capturing all of Stepnohirsk is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome declining from 42.0% to 33.0% in 24 hours. This shift follows related context regarding risks for …
Markets suggest a Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026, is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome accelerating from 61.18% to 93.15% in 24 hours. This dramatic shift follows…
Markets suggest a Ukraine peace referendum by June 30 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 71.7% to 61.5% (-10.2 percentage points) in 24 hours. This shift follows re…
Markets suggest a Ukrainian strike on Moscow municipality by December 31st is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 4.8% to 12.7% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent reports o…