Markets suggest Russia capturing all of Stepnohirsk is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome declining from 42.0% to 33.0% in 24 hours. This shift follows related context regarding risks for …
Markets suggest a Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026, is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome accelerating from 61.18% to 93.15% in 24 hours. This dramatic shift follows…
Markets suggest a Ukraine peace referendum by June 30 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 71.7% to 61.5% (-10.2 percentage points) in 24 hours. This shift follows re…
Markets suggest a Russian strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 51.21% to 8.5% in 24 hours. This dramatic shift follows a s…
Markets suggest a Ukrainian strike on Moscow municipality by December 31st is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 4.8% to 12.7% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent reports o…
Markets suggest a Russian Christmas truce is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 4.93% to 8.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows conflicting recent reports and a notable reversal…
Markets suggest Ukraine striking another tanker in the Black Sea is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome increasing from 6.79% to 9%. This shift follows recent reports of tanker incidents i…
Markets suggest Ukraine striking another tanker in the Black Sea is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome increasing from 6.79% to 9%. This shift follows recent reports of tanker incidents i…
Markets suggest Ukraine officially agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework by March 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 27.8% to 44.5% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest Ukraine officially agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework by March 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 27.8% to 44.5% in 24 hours.