Markets suggest a Russian strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 33.37% to 41.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent reports of Rus…
Markets suggest China joining the Board of Peace is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 41.32% to 44.0%. This shift follows mixed signals from global powers and China’s non-com…
Markets suggest Kadyrov’s exit as Head of the Chechen Republic is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 38.45% to 44%. This shift follows recent reports of an accident involving …
Markets suggest Ukraine striking another tanker in the Black Sea is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 45.1% to 46%. This shift follows recent reports of drone attacks in the B…
Prediction markets are indicating an increased likelihood of a European country providing a formal, binding security guarantee to Ukraine. The probability, represented by the ‘Yes’ outcome, has jum…
Markets suggest United Russia gaining the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 25.9% to 19.5% in 24 hours. This …
Markets suggest United Russia winning 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 60.98% to 68%. This shift appears to follo…
Markets suggest a Russian strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 78.2% to 65.5% in 24 hours. This shift appears to follow rec…
Markets suggest an EU/NATO country announcing a peacekeeping force in Ukraine is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 67.16% to 60.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent disc…
Markets suggest Russia’s capture of Prymorske is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 34.3% to 39.5%. This shift follows recent reports of Russian advances in the specified area.