Markets suggest Nicolás Maduro’s release from custody is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from approximately 13.6% to 14.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent news of his cap…
Prediction markets suggest Tom Willis’s chances of securing the Republican Senate nomination in West Virginia are becoming significantly LESS likely. The probability (‘Yes’ outcome) collapsed from …
Prediction markets indicate a Trump nominee for Federal Reserve Chair on January 20, 2026, is becoming increasingly unlikely. The ‘No’ outcome has surged from 50% to 87.5% over the past week, thoug…
Markets suggest turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election being at least 50% is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 93.3% to 85.0%. This shift fo…
Markets suggest Donald Trump announcing a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 20.83% to 11.55% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest María Corina Machado’s entry into Venezuela by January 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 81.2% to 39% in 24 hours. This shift follows significa…
Markets suggest a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome declining from 54.5% to 45%. This shift follows a related news report about Supreme Court retirements…
Markets suggest Thailand striking Cambodia is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 91.3% to 81.0% in 24 hours. This shift follows escalating border tensions and accusations of a…
Markets suggest Micah Lasher’s democratic nomination for NY-12 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 33.99% to 48%. This shift follows news of former Rep. Carolyn Maloney cons…
Markets suggest Miguel Díaz-Canel’s exit as President of Cuba is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 25.1% to 34.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows significant geopolitical dev…