Markets suggest United Russia winning 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 60.98% to 68%. This shift appears to follo…
Prediction markets are indicating that Luís Marques Mendes’s position as the favorite in the Portugal Presidential Election is becoming significantly more secure. The probability of him *not* being…
Prediction markets suggest the probability of Republican odds for the 2026 U.S. House election exceeding 30% by March 31st is becoming MORE likely. This is reflected in the ‘No’ outcome falling fro…
Markets suggest António José Seguro’s victory in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising sharply from …
Markets suggest Hezbollah winning the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 86.4% to 79% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest a Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win in the 2026 Thai legislative election is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 67.8% to 74% in 24 hours. This shift follows r…
Markets suggest António José Seguro winning between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 8.6% to 14%. This shift follows new polling d…
Markets suggest André Ventura winning between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 95.03% to 86.00% in 24 hours. This shift fo…
Markets suggest Luís Marques Mendes winning more than 26% of votes in the first round is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 7.05% to 14%. This shift follows a direct appeal fr…
Markets suggest turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election being less than 55% is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 82.47% to 87.65%. This shift …