Markets suggest Masoud Pezeshkian’s removal by March 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 60.1% to 49% in 24 hours. This shift follows a series of reports on President Pe…
Markets suggest Khamenei’s potential ousting by January 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 8.22% to 13.45%. This shift follows renewed reports of widespread protests and…
Markets suggest a US-Iran military engagement is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising sharply from 33.0% to 64.5% in the last 24 hours. This shift follows intensified speculation reg…
Markets suggest a US or Israeli strike on Iran by January 12, 2026, is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 19.7% to 27.5%.
Markets suggest an Israel major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31st is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 14.54% to 20.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows persistent re…
Markets suggest Israel striking Greater Beirut is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 64.55% to 58% in 24 hours. This shift follows a period of intense cross-border strikes an…
Markets suggest US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 31.9% to 25%.
Markets suggest Hezbollah winning the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 86.4% to 79% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest an Israel strike on Iraq is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 12.64% to 18% in 24 hours. This shift follows a week-long downtrend and appears to coincide with…
Markets suggest Israel striking more than one country in January 2026 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome (implying a strike on >1 country) declining from 62.73% to 54%.