Markets suggest China joining the Board of Peace is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 41.32% to 44.0%. This shift follows mixed signals from global powers and China’s non-com…
Markets suggest an Iran strike is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 94.69% to 84.5%.
This shift follows a series of escalating reports regarding US military posture and Iran…
Markets suggest a Hezbollah strike on Israel by January 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome declining from 93.45% to 85.5%.
Markets suggest Iranian regime survival is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 59.0% to 55.5%.
This shift follows a period of heightened tensions and diplomatic efforts to de-…
Markets suggest Trump invoking War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026, is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 33.65% to 42.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent g…
Markets suggest a US-Iran nuclear deal is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 65.7% to 73%. This shift follows escalating rhetoric and reports of potential US military action ag…
Prediction markets suggest a US strike on Iran by January 31, 2026, is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome (representing a US strike) falling sharply from 69.4% to 57.0% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest an Israel strike on Iran is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 81.8% to 86% in 24 hours, reversing a slight 7-day decline where ‘No’ fell by 0.43%. This shift f…
Markets suggest an Israeli strike on Iran is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Israel’ outcome rising from 23.51% to 24.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows a week-long downtrend and coincides with esc…
Markets suggest an Iran-initiated strike on Israel by January 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 61.9% to 62.5% in the last 24 hours. This shift appears to follow a week-…