Markets suggest an Israel/US target on an Iranian nuclear facility is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 30.9% to 25.5% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest Khamenei remaining in power is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 54.5% to 57.5%. This shift follows intense reports of ongoing protests in Iran and government…
Markets suggest Masoud Pezeshkian’s removal by March 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 60.1% to 49% in 24 hours. This shift follows a series of reports on President Pe…
Markets suggest Khamenei’s potential ousting by January 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 8.22% to 13.45%. This shift follows renewed reports of widespread protests and…
Markets suggest a US-Iran military engagement is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising sharply from 33.0% to 64.5% in the last 24 hours. This shift follows intensified speculation reg…
Markets suggest a meeting between Trump and Reza Pahlavi is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome declining from 75.7% to 68.5% in the last 24 hours. This shift follows continued reports of u…
Markets suggest a US or Israeli strike on Iran by January 12, 2026, is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 19.7% to 27.5%.
Markets suggest an Israel major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31st is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 14.54% to 20.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows persistent re…
Markets suggest US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 31.9% to 25%.
Markets suggest Israel striking more than one country in January 2026 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome (implying a strike on >1 country) declining from 62.73% to 54%.