Markets suggest a 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 16.2% to 42% in 24 hours. This shift represents a dramatic reversal of a w…
Markets suggest two Fed dissents are becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 43.2% to 60% in 24 hours. This shift appears to challenge the previous week’s slight decline, su…
Prediction markets indicate a Trump nominee for Federal Reserve Chair on January 20, 2026, is becoming increasingly unlikely. The ‘No’ outcome has surged from 50% to 87.5% over the past week, thoug…
Markets suggest Donald Trump announcing a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 20.83% to 11.55% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest the Fed’s lower bound reaching 2.5% or lower before 2027 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 44.81% to 41%. This shift appears to follow the release of the …
Prediction markets suggest a Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate cut in March is becoming significantly more likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome surging from approximately 12% to 47% in just 24 hours. This m…
Markets suggest UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 being between 1.0% and 1.5% is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 66.8% to 27.5% in the last 24 hours. This dramatic shift fo…
Prediction markets suggest a notable shift in sentiment regarding US GDP growth for Q1 2026. The probability of GDP growth being less than 1.0% appears to have increased, as the ‘No’ outcome (GDP w…
Prediction markets suggest a notable shift in sentiment regarding US GDP growth for Q1 2026. The probability of GDP growth being less than 1.0% appears to have increased, as the ‘No’ outcome (GDP w…
Prediction markets suggest a subtle shift in sentiment regarding a Fed rate cut by the January 2026 meeting. Despite a week-long decline, the ‘Yes’ side for a rate cut has seen a notable rebound in…