Markets suggest a 25bps cut by the Fed by Feb 28 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 43.76% to 49.5%.
Markets suggest Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair and rates staying above 2.5% in 2026 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome declining from 81.91% to 76.5% in 24 hours.
Markets suggest a January 2026 FOMC decision with no change and less than 2 dissents is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from 56.9% to 51.5% in 24 hours. This shift follo…
Markets suggest the Fed target funds rate reaching 3.0% by the end of 2026 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome declining from 27.29% to 21.5%.
Markets suggest a US strike on Iran is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘US Strikes Iran’ outcome falling from 28.6% to 22.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows reports of the US and Israel weighing str…
Markets suggest a Trump Fed Chair nominee securing 50 ‘Yea’ votes is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 19.6% to 25%.
Markets suggest a Trump-Powell meeting by January 31, 2026, is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 28.9% to 17.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows escalating tensions b…
Markets suggest Trump dropping the Powell investigation is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 25.18% to 30.5%. This shift follows a day of intense news coverage highlighting b…
Markets suggest the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 4.3% by March 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 51.3% to 53.5%. This shift follows a series of news reports concernin…
Markets suggest Jerome Powell’s exit from the Fed Board is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 82.8% to 73.5%. This shift follows intense news surrounding a criminal investiga…