Markets suggest Angie Craig’s Democratic nomination for Senate in Minnesota is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising sharply from 43.81% to 73.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows a flurry of news regarding the Minnesota Senate race, including new candidate filings and shifts in other key Democratic candidacies.

Asymmetry Analysis

The market was already trending strongly against Craig’s nomination over the past week, with the ‘No’ outcome rising 19.5 points from 54% to its current 73.5%. This existing trend accelerated dramatically in the last 24 hours with a further 29.7 point rise. This indicates a powerful, confirmed shift in sentiment rather than a reversal, suggesting a rapidly building consensus against her nomination, directly linked to the recent, highly impactful news events.

Why This Matters

Markets are quickly pricing in a more complex and competitive landscape for the Minnesota Senate race. Following these reports, these angles emerge for journalists: the potential fracturing of the Democratic field, the impact of new Republican challengers, and the broader implications of local political scandals on candidate viability. This gives you critical research angles before they become mainstream.

What To Investigate

Building on AOL.com’s reporting, journalists should verify: What is the current fundraising status of potential Republican challengers, like Michele Tafoya, and how does this compare to Angie Craig’s campaign? Following The Washington Post’s report, journalists should investigate: How does a potential Amy Klobuchar gubernatorial bid reshape the Democratic field for the Senate nomination, and what are the immediate impacts on Angie Craig’s campaign strategy? Given AOL.com’s report on a ‘massive fraud scandal,’ journalists should research: What are the specific details and implications of this scandal for the Minnesota Democratic Party, and how might it influence voter perception of candidates in the upcoming primary?

Context

The Minnesota Senate race is becoming increasingly dynamic, with high-profile entries and shifts among prominent figures. This market’s sharp move indicates that prediction market traders are quickly adapting to these changes, suggesting a significant reassessment of Angie Craig’s path to the Democratic nomination.

Confidence & Caveats

This analysis is based on predictive market data, which for primary elections typically shows 58-65% accuracy. While the signal strength is strong, market liquidity is moderate, and unforeseen political developments, such as further candidate announcements or shifts in public opinion, could alter the outcome.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
  • Market ID: 799420
  • Token ID: 37176995901956798654986416239627605030391817317073076847003412917986891275680
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $0.01
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.30
  • Current Price: $0.73
  • Volume (24h): $947
  • Open Interest: $1,189

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.