Markets suggest a Democratic Party win in the NY-22 House seat is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome (Democratic Party not winning) slightly increasing from approximately 55.44% to 55.5% in 24 hours. This subtle shift appears to be a minor repositioning in a low-liquidity market.

News Timeline

  • 4 hours ago: ‘Texas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls’ (The New York Times)
  • 7 hours ago: ‘New York Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls’ (The New York Times)

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend for the ‘No’ outcome showed a slight decline of 0.06%, reversing in the last 24 hours to a slight increase of 0.06%. This minimal asymmetry, a gap of only 0.12%, suggests a very slight short-term sentiment shift against a week-long minor trend. This could reflect minor technical adjustments, very subtle repositioning by a few traders due to general political sentiment, or simply market noise in a low-liquidity environment. There is no clear timing correlation with the provided news snippets, which are not directly relevant to the NY-22 House seat.

Why This Matters

This subtle market movement, despite its small magnitude, could indicate early, unconfirmed shifts in local sentiment or a slight repositioning by traders. For journalists, it offers a starting point to investigate potential underlying changes that have not yet manifested in mainstream news. Following The New York Times’ reporting on broader state-level polls, these subtle signals might hint at ripple effects.

What To Investigate

Building on the broader election context reported by The New York Times, journalists should verify: 1. Contact NY-22 campaign offices for both parties: Are internal polling numbers showing any shifts, even minor ones? 2. Review local NY-22 media and community discussions: Are there any unreported local developments or candidate statements impacting sentiment? 3. Interview local political analysts: How might the broader New York state political climate, as indicated by the Governor’s race polls, be indirectly influencing sentiment in specific House districts like NY-22?

Context

The market for the NY-22 House seat currently shows very low liquidity, with only $216.08 in 24-hour volume and $112.80 in open interest. This means that even small trades can significantly influence the price, making the market highly sensitive to individual actions rather than broad consensus.

Confidence & Caveats

Election markets, especially for House seats, typically show 60-70% accuracy. The signal strength is weak due to the extremely small 24-hour price change of 0.06%. The ‘DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE’ pattern is ambiguous, and data completeness is limited by low volume and open interest. BUT: The extremely low volume and open interest mean even minor trades can create disproportionate price movements, making this signal highly susceptible to noise.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?
  • Market ID: 943469
  • Token ID: 71361106257690028251455610707283136088158416844969044440473899198365923188862
  • Quality Score: 4/9
  • Classification: Sentiment Drift
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.00
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.00
  • Current Price: $0.56
  • Volume (24h): $216
  • Open Interest: $113

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.