Markets suggest Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hitting $10B in 2026 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 10.66% to 17.5%. This shift follows a significant reversal from a week-long downtrend, indicating a potential change in trader sentiment.

News Timeline

  • 15 hours ago: “Monero (XMR) Price Prediction 2026, 2027-2030, 2040” (Coinpaper)

Market response: The 24-hour price increase for Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 open interest occurred after the related Monero news, suggesting a potential, albeit indirect, correlation with broader crypto market sentiment, rather than a direct Hyperliquid-specific catalyst.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend showed a decline of 2.98%, but the last 24 hours saw a strong reversal with a 6.84% increase. This asymmetry suggests that new information or a significant shift in market perception has occurred, overriding the previous bearish trend. This could be due to a technical bounce after an oversold period, or it might reflect a renewed, but unconfirmed, optimism within the Hyperliquid community or broader DeFi space. The timing does not directly correlate with breaking news for Hyperliquid, implying the shift could be internal or based on subtle sentiment changes.

Why This Matters

Markets are often early indicators of sentiment shifts that mainstream media might miss. Following Coinpaper’s report on broader crypto trends, this specific move in Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market offers an early signal into a niche yet significant part of the DeFi ecosystem. Journalists should note this potential divergence from previous trends.

What To Investigate

Building on Coinpaper’s reporting, journalists should verify: 1. Contact Hyperliquid team: Are there any unannounced developments or partnerships that could be driving renewed interest in HIP-3 open interest? 2. Review on-chain data: Have there been any significant large wallet movements or institutional inflows into Hyperliquid recently that would support this price action? 3. Monitor crypto news: What are the current trends in the broader DeFi sector or institutional crypto adoption that might indirectly influence Hyperliquid’s growth trajectory? 4. Interview crypto analysts: What is the expert sentiment on Hyperliquid’s potential to reach $10B in open interest by 2026, considering recent market movements?

Context

Hyperliquid is a prominent DeFi platform, and its HIP-3 open interest reaching $10B would signify substantial growth and adoption within the decentralized finance space. This market’s movement offers a glimpse into how traders are currently pricing the platform’s future success.

Confidence & Caveats

Cryptocurrency prediction markets typically have an accuracy rate of 65-75%. The signal strength is moderate, with a 6.84% move, and the pattern is a clear BEAR_TO_BULL_REVERSAL. However, the relatively low open interest of $4,838.76 means that even smaller trades could significantly influence the price, and the related news is not directly tied to Hyperliquid, meaning the cause of the reversal could be speculative or technical.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $10B in 2026?
  • Market ID: 1185740
  • Token ID: 52624259051067760796984788484589425568365586879258247593194394450116661798447
  • Quality Score: 4/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.03
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.07
  • Current Price: $0.17
  • Volume (24h): $1,069
  • Open Interest: $4,839

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.