Markets suggest a Trump national emergency declaration is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 70.2% to 55.5% in the last 24 hours. This sharp shift reverses a week-long upward trend and occurs amidst various news reports concerning President Trump’s recent actions, none of which directly confirm an imminent national emergency declaration.

Asymmetry Analysis

The market’s ‘Yes’ outcome had seen a positive 7-day trend of +7.98%, indicating growing belief in a national emergency declaration. However, this trend has sharply reversed in the last 24 hours with a -14.67% drop. This strong asymmetry suggests that new information or a significant shift in trader perception has overridden the previous momentum. Possible causes could include: 1) A realization that recent Trump actions, while impactful, do not constitute a National Emergency Act declaration. 2) Traders interpreting the focus on tariffs and specific policy interventions (electricity costs, appointments) as a signal that a broader emergency declaration is not a current priority. 3) The market might be reacting to the *lack* of explicit news or signals pointing towards an NEA declaration, despite various other Trump-related headlines. Timing correlation: The reversal appears to align with the release of several news snippets (5-13 hours ago) detailing various Trump activities, none of which explicitly pointed to an imminent national emergency under the NEA. This suggests a collective reassessment by the market based on the available information.

Why This Matters

Markets often price in information before it becomes mainstream news, offering unique research angles. Following the recent news, these angles emerge for journalists to investigate the true likelihood of a Trump national emergency declaration.

What To Investigate

Building on recent news and market movements, journalists should verify: 1. **NEA Triggers**: Contact White House legal counsel or relevant executive agencies: What specific criteria or events would trigger a formal declaration under the National Emergencies Act within the current administration’s framework? 2. **Policy Focus**: Investigate the administration’s current legislative and executive priorities: Is there any internal discussion or planning for a broad emergency declaration, or is the focus primarily on specific issues like tariffs, border security, or energy costs as highlighted in recent reports? 3. **State-Level Requests**: Following Governor Gianforte’s request for a disaster declaration for windstorms, research if other states have made similar appeals to the Trump administration, and how these requests are being processed in relation to a potential NEA declaration.

Context

The National Emergencies Act grants the President broad powers during a declared emergency. President Trump has previously utilized such declarations, for instance, for border security. This market tracks if he will use this power again by June 2026, making the context of his ongoing policy initiatives and any public statements crucial.

Confidence & Caveats

Political markets, especially those involving specific presidential actions, have an average accuracy of 58-65%. While the 14.67% 24-hour move is substantial, the market’s relatively low Open Interest of $1,797.04 means that even moderate trading volumes ($178.28 in 24h) can cause significant price swings, potentially amplifying the signal beyond its true underlying conviction.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Trump declares a national emergency by June 30, 2026?
  • Market ID: 1184780
  • Token ID: 81952638076063985002168444045913768230946676362528379571938496055412832608124
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $0.08
  • 24-Hour Trend: $-0.15
  • Current Price: $0.56
  • Volume (24h): $178
  • Open Interest: $1,797

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.