Markets suggest Khamenei’s exit from power is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 68.8% to 44.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows a series of reports detailing escalating tensions, a severe regime crackdown on protests, and increased US military presence in the region.

News Timeline

  • 31 minutes ago: “Iran Protests Live Updates: US carrier strike group heads for Middle East; tensions flare” (Times of India)
  • 16 minutes ago: “Iran protests LIVE: 3,400+ reported dead amid US strike fears, Trump to ‘watch and see’ | World News” (Hindustan Times)
  • 2 hours ago: “Here’s What to Know About the Protests in Iran” (The New York Times)
  • 3 hours ago: “‘The regime is only buying time’: Iran’s supreme leader faces his greatest challenge yet” (Ynetnews)

Market response: The sharp decline in Khamenei’s exit odds appears to have coincided with the latest reports on the intensifying crackdown and the US carrier strike group movement, indicating a rapid market re-evaluation based on these developments.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend showed a rising probability for Khamenei’s exit (+9.82%), but this sharply reversed in the last 24 hours with a significant decline (-24.29%). This strong asymmetry (a gap of 34.11%) suggests a major shift in sentiment, likely triggered by new information regarding the regime’s effective crackdown and increased geopolitical tensions. The reversal began shortly after fresh news snippets emerged detailing these events, indicating a direct correlation between information flow and market repricing.

Why This Matters

Markets see things Twitter doesn’t yet. This gives you research angles. Following various news reports, these angles emerge: Prediction markets are quickly processing real-time geopolitical shifts, offering an early signal that the immediate threat to Khamenei’s rule may be diminishing, despite ongoing unrest. This provides a counter-narrative to consider when reporting on Iran’s stability.

What To Investigate

Building on The New York Times’ report on Iran protests (2 hours ago), journalists should verify: Have the regime’s crackdown measures effectively suppressed dissent, or are they fueling further long-term instability? Following Ynetnews’ report on Khamenei facing his greatest challenge (3 hours ago), journalists should investigate: Are there verifiable signs of internal dissent within the Iranian power structure, beyond public protests, that could threaten Khamenei’s position? In light of AP News’ report on fast trials and executions (11 hours ago), journalists should research: What is the international community’s response to these actions, and how might it impact Iran’s diplomatic standing or potential sanctions? Given the Times of India’s update on US carrier strike group movement (31 minutes ago), journalists should contact regional experts: How is this US military presence perceived by different factions within Iran, and what are the immediate geopolitical implications?

Context

This market tracks the likelihood of the ‘Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?’ market being priced over 20% on a specific Friday. The current movement reflects a dramatic re-evaluation of the near-term probability of such an event, especially in the context of recent geopolitical developments. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ pattern indicates a rapid loss of confidence in the previously upward trend.

Confidence & Caveats

Prediction markets for geopolitical events like leadership changes have an accuracy rate of approximately 55-65%. The signal strength is strong given the -24.29% delta, and the pattern reliability is high for a ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’. The market’s limited depth ($8,361 open interest) means price is highly sensitive to individual trades, and external geopolitical factors could quickly alter sentiment.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday?
  • Market ID: 1169228
  • Token ID: 74667160862927882227508525468005833958770591831490373463093081077506770032106
  • Quality Score: 8/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $0.10
  • 24-Hour Trend: $-0.24
  • Current Price: $0.45
  • Volume (24h): $141,604
  • Open Interest: $8,361

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.