Markets suggest Trump dropping the Powell investigation is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 25.18% to 30.5%. This shift follows a day of intense news coverage highlighting blowback from various political and financial circles, potentially pressuring the administration.

News Timeline

  • 8 minutes ago: “Trump Ramps Up Greenland Threats, Miller Says ICE Agents Have ‘Federal Immunity’: Live Updates” (HuffPost)
  • 1 hour ago: “Gold, Silver Hit Records Amid Powell Investigation” (Mexico Business News)
  • 3 hours ago: “Markets remain bullish despite Iran tensions, Trump tariff threats and Powell investigation” (Portfolio Adviser)
  • 5 hours ago: “Powell probe highlights Trump DOJ role as White House enforcer” (Reuters)

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend saw the likelihood of Trump dropping the Powell investigation decline by 13.11%, but this trend sharply reversed in the last 24 hours with a 5.32% increase for the ‘Yes’ outcome. This significant asymmetry suggests that new information or a shift in political calculus has emerged, overriding the previous bearish sentiment. The reversal appears to be timed with a flurry of news over the past 12 hours detailing widespread criticism of the investigation from Republicans, Wall Street, and even some Trump allies, as seen in reports from Reuters and Facebook.

Why This Matters

Prediction markets often price in sentiment shifts before mainstream media fully reports on them. Following Reuters’ report on the political implications and Mexico Business News’ report on market anxiety, these angles emerge for deeper journalistic investigation.

What To Investigate

  • Contact DOJ sources: Are there internal discussions about the political and economic fallout of continuing the Powell investigation?
  • Interview White House aides: What is the internal sentiment regarding the widespread criticism from Republicans and Wall Street, as reported by Reuters?
  • Review economic reports: How are key economic indicators (like gold/silver prices mentioned by Mexico Business News) reacting to the ongoing uncertainty, and could this pressure the administration?
  • Poll congressional leaders (both parties): What is the current political appetite for continuing a controversial probe into the Fed Chair, especially ahead of the February 28 deadline?

Context

The investigation into Jerome Powell has been met with significant resistance, portraying it as an attack on the Federal Reserve’s independence. This market gauges the likelihood of the Trump administration retracting the probe amidst this pressure, with the Feb 28 deadline serving as a critical near-term catalyst.

Confidence & Caveats

Historically, markets dealing with specific political actions or deadlines, especially those involving the White House, can have an accuracy rate of 65-75%. However, this pattern is highly sensitive to sudden, unpredictable announcements from the administration. The moderate open interest means price could be influenced by fewer large trades, and the current ‘Yes’ probability of 30.5% still suggests it’s a less likely outcome, despite the recent upward trend.

Related News Sources

Market Metadata

  • Market: Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?
  • Market ID: 1171320
  • Token ID: 112237736732818504372540869464294233199370893266482178940150942986256000188974
  • Quality Score: 6/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.13
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.05
  • Current Price: $0.30
  • Volume (24h): $6,312
  • Open Interest: $4,667

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.