Markets suggest Israel striking Iran is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 68.4% to 74.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows a day of increased geopolitical tensions and related news, which appears to have calmed sentiment among prediction market traders regarding an imminent Israeli strike.

News Timeline

  • 1 hour ago: “Iran latest: Tehran warns neighbouring countries if US attacks – as Trump threatens ‘very strong action’ if protesters are hanged” (Sky News)
  • 36 minutes ago: “US expected to unveil post-war Gaza leadership, sources say” (The Straits Times)
  • 16 hours ago: “Trump Tells Protesters “Help Is On Its Way,” Cuts Off Negotiations With Regime” (The War Zone)

Market response: The market’s movement, specifically the rise in ‘No’ odds, appears to coincide with recent reports suggesting a broader U.S. focus on post-war Gaza leadership, potentially shifting immediate attention away from a direct Israeli strike on Iran, despite ongoing protests and warnings from Tehran.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend saw the ‘No’ outcome declining by 3.91%, suggesting a slight increase in the perceived likelihood of an Israeli strike over the past week. However, this trend sharply reversed in the last 24 hours, with ‘No’ rising by 8.92%. This strong asymmetry (12.83% gap) could suggest: new information arrived that changed sentiment, potentially related to the broader regional strategy for Gaza, or a market overreaction to previous tensions that is now correcting. The reversal, particularly the upward movement in ‘No’ odds, seems to have gained momentum in the last few hours, coinciding with reports of the US focusing on post-war Gaza leadership, as reported by The Straits Times 36 minutes ago. This could be interpreted as a signal that immediate attention is being directed elsewhere.

Why This Matters

Following Euronews’ report on potential war, these angles emerge: markets are signaling a potential shift in immediate geopolitical focus despite underlying tensions, providing journalists with a critical counter-narrative to explore.

What To Investigate

Building on The Straits Times’ reporting, journalists should verify: What are the specific details of the US plan for Gaza’s post-war leadership, and how does this affect regional stability and the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran? Following Sky News’ report on Tehran’s warnings, journalists should investigate: What are the specific implications of Iran’s warnings to neighboring countries if the US attacks, and how do regional actors perceive these threats? Contact Israeli diplomatic and military sources: Are there any shifts in strategic priorities regarding Iran, especially in light of the US’s renewed focus on Gaza or internal Iranian unrest? Review international intelligence reports: Are there any undisclosed diplomatic efforts or back-channel communications aimed at de-escalation between Israel and Iran, or a re-assessment of Iran’s internal stability?

Context

Historically, escalations in the Middle East are often complex, with multiple actors and shifting priorities. The market’s current stance may reflect a temporary de-prioritization of an immediate Israeli strike in favor of other regional developments, rather than a fundamental change in long-term tensions.

Confidence & Caveats

Geopolitical event markets typically have an accuracy rate of 55-65% due to their unpredictable nature. This signal’s reliability could be impacted by sudden, unforeseen escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs not yet priced in by the market.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
  • Market ID: 1169210
  • Token ID: 104045294480936053574811778073855593786774197730247528172203825562424079956283
  • Quality Score: 6/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.04
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.09
  • Current Price: $0.74
  • Volume (24h): $47,223
  • Open Interest: $5,177

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.