Prediction markets suggest the Clarity Act is becoming significantly LESS likely to be signed into law by 2026, with the ‘No’ outcome surging from ~47% to 62% in the last 24 hours. This sharp decline in confidence follows reports of a key vote being delayed in the U.S. Senate, signaling major political headwinds.

News Timeline

  • 17 hours ago: HOKANEWS.COM reports, “U.S. Senate Delays CLARITY Act Vote as Behind-the-Scenes Politics Heat Up,” suggesting the markup was postponed to secure broader support and avoid regulatory turf wars.
  • 19 hours ago: HOKANEWS.COM publishes, “Washington Finally Talks Crypto: Bipartisan Senate Bill Promises Long-Awaited Market Clarity,” indicating initial optimism before the delay was reported.
  • 4 hours ago: Messari notes the introduction of the bill, providing background context.

Market Analysis

The market’s sharp move against the bill’s passage is a direct and immediate reaction to the reported legislative delay. The +14 point jump in the ‘No’ outcome within hours of the news indicates that traders view this delay not as a routine procedural step, but as a serious threat to the bill’s viability within the 2026 timeframe. The acceleration from a modest 7-day drift to a 24-hour surge underscores the event-driven nature of this sentiment shift.

Why This Matters

This market is acting as a real-time barometer of the bill’s political health. The sharp negative reaction provides a quantifiable measure of how damaging the reported ‘behind-the-scenes politics’ are perceived to be. For journalists, this signals a shift from a story about legislative progress to one about political infighting and potential failure.

What To Investigate

  • Contact legislative aides in the Senate Banking Committee: What are the specific roadblocks and points of contention causing the delay reported by HOKANEWS.COM?
  • Identify the key players in the ‘behind-the-scenes politics’: Which senators or lobbying groups are pushing against the current draft?
  • Interview crypto industry lobbyists: How has their internal assessment of the Act’s chances changed in the last 24 hours following news of the delay?
  • Analyze the official record: Has a new date for the vote been proposed, or is it delayed indefinitely? The length of the delay is a critical variable.

Confidence & Caveats

Our confidence in this signal is high due to the clear news catalyst and strong price action. BUT, legislative markets are notoriously volatile and can reverse quickly on new political developments or closed-door negotiations.

Related News Sources

Market Metadata

  • Market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
  • Market ID: 1163699
  • Token ID: 29633826701713552120011280893309822625942861174174976276686142480636225243753
  • Quality Score: 8/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $0.09
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.30
  • Current Price: $0.61
  • Volume (24h): $4,307
  • Open Interest: $3,539

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.