Markets suggest Bitcoin BIP-360 implementation is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 60.9% to 57.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent developments in quantum-safe Bitcoin solutions, which appear to have shifted sentiment among prediction market traders.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend showed a slight increase in BIP-360’s likelihood (+2.71%), but this has sharply reversed in the last 24 hours with a -5.58% drop. This strong asymmetry suggests that new, significant information has arrived that has quickly altered trader sentiment, overriding the previous week-long trend. The timing of the reversal coincides with the news of BTQ Technologies’ Bitcoin Quantum testnet launch.

Why This Matters

Following The Malaysian Reserve’s report, these angles emerge: Prediction markets are quickly processing information about the future direction of Bitcoin development, offering an early signal on how new technological advancements (like quantum-safe solutions) might impact the prioritization or perceived feasibility of other protocol upgrades like BIP-360. This provides journalists with a unique lens into emerging narratives within the crypto space before they become mainstream.

What To Investigate

Building on The Malaysian Reserve’s reporting, journalists should verify: – Contact Bitcoin Core developers: How does the quantum-safe testnet initiative impact the timeline or priority of BIP-360? – Interview quantum cryptography experts: What are the technical challenges and adoption timelines for quantum-safe Bitcoin solutions, and how might they interact with existing BIPs? – Review BTQ Technologies’ whitepaper/roadmap: Are there explicit mentions of how their quantum-safe solutions integrate with or supersede other proposed Bitcoin protocol upgrades? – Poll crypto community leaders: Is there a growing consensus that quantum-safety should take precedence over other BIPs, and what does this mean for BIP-360?

Context

BIP-360 represents a potential protocol upgrade for Bitcoin, and its implementation depends on developer consensus and network adoption. The emergence of quantum computing as a perceived threat to blockchain security introduces a new layer of complexity, potentially shifting the focus of the core development community towards more fundamental security enhancements. Historically, major Bitcoin upgrades require significant time and broad agreement.

Confidence & Caveats

Bitcoin/crypto markets are highly volatile and can be less predictable than traditional markets, but prediction markets for specific events like BIPs often reflect informed sentiment, typically with 55-65% accuracy. The signal strength is medium, driven by a moderate 24h move and strong pattern reliability. BUT: Crypto markets are prone to rapid sentiment shifts based on minor news or technical factors, and a BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH pattern, while clear, could sometimes precede a ‘dead cat bounce’.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026?
  • Market ID: 1106425
  • Token ID: 106209470905140133419252056944399671970425852277950125119183011062762795065913
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $0.03
  • 24-Hour Trend: $-0.06
  • Current Price: $0.57
  • Volume (24h): $660
  • Open Interest: $768

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.