Markets suggest Khamenei remaining in power is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 54.5% to 57.5%. This shift follows intense reports of ongoing protests in Iran and government responses, which appear to have led to a re-evaluation of the Supreme Leader’s immediate stability.

News Timeline

  • hace 6 horas: “Las mayores protestas en Irán en medio siglo dejan más de 500 muertos y ponen a Israel en estado de ‘máxima alerta'” (El Español)
  • hace 11 horas: “Protestas dejan más de 500 muertos en Irán; Teherán responde a amenazas de Trump” (France 24)
  • hace 11 horas: “Medio oriente. Protestas en Irán: se sumaron 538 muertos y se teme a una represión tras el apagón de Internet” (La Voz del Interior)

Market response: The market’s upward movement for Khamenei’s stability appears to have coincided with these recent reports detailing the scale of protests and the regime’s firm, often violent, response, suggesting traders believe the regime is consolidating its position.

Asymmetry Analysis

The market showed a week-long trend of declining odds for Khamenei to remain in power (down 3.64%), but reversed sharply in the last 24 hours with a 5.44% increase in the ‘Yes’ outcome. This significant asymmetry (gap of 9.08%) suggests a fresh catalyst has shifted sentiment. This reversal coincides with news of escalating protests and the Iranian regime’s strong response, including threats against the US and Israel, and reports of severe repression and internet blackouts. The market appears to be interpreting these developments as either the regime consolidating power or external intervention being less likely, rather than an imminent fall of Khamenei.

Why This Matters

Following reports from El Español and France 24 on the intensifying protests and regime response, these angles emerge for journalists to investigate the underlying market sentiment, which seems to diverge from the immediate implication of widespread unrest.

What To Investigate

Building on El Español’s reporting, journalists should verify: – Contact Iranian opposition sources: Are there signs of internal division within the regime that could contradict the market’s current assessment of Khamenei’s stability? – Interview geopolitical experts: How do the regime’s threats against the US and Israel, as reported by France 24, influence the perception of its internal strength versus international pressure? – Analyze local media reports (if accessible): Is there independent verification of the protest casualties and the impact of internet blackouts, as reported by La Voz del Interior, and how might this affect public sentiment long-term? – Review intelligence assessments: What is the current evaluation of the IRGC’s loyalty and capacity to suppress dissent, especially given reports from The Jerusalem Post about them being on ‘maximum alert’?

Context

The market’s current pricing suggests that despite the significant internal unrest and international pressure, traders do not foresee an imminent removal or departure of Supreme Leader Khamenei before March 31, 2026. This indicates a belief in the regime’s resilience or its ability to contain the current crisis.

Confidence & Caveats

Geopolitical markets, especially those involving regime stability, can be highly volatile and are subject to rapid shifts based on unconfirmed information or external events. Historically, such markets have an accuracy rate of approximately 60-65% for binary outcomes over this timeframe. BUT: The situation in Iran is highly fluid, and any unforeseen escalation of protests, internal power struggle, or direct foreign intervention could rapidly invalidate the current market sentiment.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
  • Market ID: 1117242
  • Token ID: 105172792593287085858606406234785306574242246071042157052532529020389839736280
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.04
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.05
  • Current Price: $0.57
  • Volume (24h): $205,666
  • Open Interest: $14,877

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.