Markets suggest Masoud Pezeshkian’s removal by March 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling from 60.1% to 49% in 24 hours. This shift follows a series of reports on President Pezeshkian’s public address amidst ongoing protests, attempting to stabilize the situation.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend saw the ‘Yes’ outcome, indicating Pezeshkian’s potential removal, rise by 5.01 percentage points. However, this trend sharply reversed in the last 24 hours, with the ‘Yes’ outcome declining by 11.14 percentage points. This strong asymmetry (a gap of 16.15%) suggests new information arrived that changed sentiment, likely influenced by President Pezeshkian’s recent public appearances and the government’s response to the protests. The reversal began around the time CNN reported live updates on ongoing protests (28 minutes ago) and Al Jazeera reported Pezeshkian’s statements (1 hour ago).

Possible causes for this reversal include: 1) Pezeshkian’s public address, pledging economic overhaul and blaming external forces, might have been perceived as a strategic move to consolidate power or calm the public. 2) The government’s strong stance and crackdown on protests could be seen by traders as effective in maintaining control, at least in the short term. 3) The market might be reacting to a temporary de-escalation of immediate threats to his power, despite the underlying unrest.

Why This Matters

Markets see things Twitter doesn’t yet. Following reports from CNN and Al Jazeera, these angles emerge: prediction markets appear to be indicating a temporary easing of pressure on Pezeshkian, suggesting a need for deeper investigation into the effectiveness of his recent actions and the true impact of the ongoing protests.

What To Investigate

Building on CNN’s reporting, journalists should verify: What is the true scale and impact of the internet blackout on protest coordination and public information flow? Following Al Jazeera’s report, journalists should verify: How are Pezeshkian’s pledges for economic overhaul being received by the public and key opposition figures, and are there any concrete policy changes being implemented? Interview regional experts: What are the historical precedents for a leader making conciliatory statements while simultaneously blaming external forces, and how effective has this strategy been in similar situations in Iran? Track international responses: Are there any new sanctions or diplomatic pressures being considered by the US or EU in response to the crackdown, which could destabilize Pezeshkian’s position further?

Context

The market appears to be reacting to a volatile geopolitical situation in Iran, where internal protests over economic conditions and government policies are clashing with official statements and crackdowns. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ reversal type indicates a sharp and sudden shift in market sentiment, moving from a bullish outlook on Pezeshkian’s removal to a more bearish one within a short timeframe.

Confidence & Caveats

Geopolitical markets have a historical accuracy of approximately 55-65%, making them inherently volatile and sensitive to unpredictable events. The signal could change rapidly with any new developments in the protests, further government crackdowns, or international interventions. The market appears to remain highly sensitive to breaking news.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
  • Market ID: 1138907
  • Token ID: 83477251844381857150170736355942172120534943343337087062100502537327161583361
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $0.05
  • 24-Hour Trend: $-0.11
  • Current Price: $0.49
  • Volume (24h): $817
  • Open Interest: $1,099

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.