Markets suggest a Venezuela coup attempt by March 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 83.3% to 78.0% in 24 hours. This shift follows recent reports hinting at altered US plans regarding Maduro’s successor and criticism against potential military action in Venezuela.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend saw the ‘No’ outcome for a coup rise by 4.54%, indicating a prior market sentiment of decreasing likelihood for a coup. However, this trend sharply reversed in the last 24 hours with a 5.32% drop in ‘No’ odds. This asymmetry suggests that new information, specifically the recent news snippets regarding US plans and international reactions, has significantly altered trader sentiment, overriding the previous week-long conviction against a coup. The timing correlation between the news and the price movement is evident.

Why This Matters

Markets are reacting to specific reports that mainstream media might be processing with a delay or different interpretation. Following Bankingnews’s report, these angles emerge for journalists to investigate: the market appears to be pricing in a heightened risk of a significant event, diverging from the more stable sentiment of the past week.

What To Investigate

Building on Bankingnews’s reporting, journalists should verify: 1. Contact US State Department sources: Verify reports regarding ‘new kidnapping’ plans for Maduro’s successor and any specific changes in ‘Trump’s plans’ for Venezuela. 2. Investigate UN diplomatic channels: Gather more details on the ‘U.S. Allies Criticize Military Action in Venezuela’ report by The New York Times, specifically regarding the nature and timing of any potential ‘military incursion’ and its implications. 3. Monitor Venezuelan opposition groups: Assess any shifts in strategy or rhetoric following these international developments, which could signal increased internal pressure or external support for a coup. 4. Analyze regional stability reports: Evaluate intelligence from neighboring countries or NGOs on any unusual military movements or political unrest within Venezuela that could precede a coup attempt.

Context

Venezuela has a history of political instability and foreign intervention attempts. The market’s reaction reflects a heightened sensitivity to any signals of external pressure or internal destabilization efforts, particularly given the specific mention of US strategic shifts.

Confidence & Caveats

Geopolitical event markets, especially those involving coups, typically have an accuracy rate of 55-65% due to the inherent unpredictability of international affairs and the influence of external factors. While the signal strength is medium-strong due to the 24-hour reversal and clear pattern, the market could be highly susceptible to further unconfirmed reports or official denials. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ pattern suggests a rapid shift in sentiment, but such rapid shifts can sometimes be overreactions.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Venezuela coup attempt by March 31?
  • Market ID: 1123437
  • Token ID: 113960393331759082920433235528267622630322498487684522691447565399625085276592
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $0.05
  • 24-Hour Trend: $-0.05
  • Current Price: $0.78
  • Volume (24h): $5,522
  • Open Interest: $4,229

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.