Markets suggest turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election being less than 55% is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 82.47% to 87.65%. This shift follows a notable divergence from the week-long trend, potentially influenced by broader regional sentiment.

News Timeline

  • hace 17 horas: “América Latina 2025: el voto castigo entre la fragmentación y la erosión democrática” (Diario Las Américas)

Market response: The market’s recent upward movement for the ‘No’ outcome (turnout will NOT be less than 55%) aligns with the broader context of voter sentiment shifts in Latin America, as highlighted in the news snippet. While the news is 17 hours old, it provides relevant background for the observed market behavior.

Asymmetry Analysis

The market shows strong contradictory signals. Over the past 7 days, the ‘No’ outcome trended downwards from 91.15% to its current 87.65%, suggesting a growing belief that turnout would be low. However, this trend reversed sharply in the last 24 hours, with the ‘No’ outcome jumping from 82.47% to 87.65% (+6.28%). This abrupt reversal suggests: 1. New information or sentiment arrived that changed sentiment, potentially related to a reassessment of voter enthusiasm or political stability in the region. 2. The earlier 7-day dip might have been an overreaction, with traders now correcting to a more stable outlook on turnout. 3. The volume increase suggests a more deliberate repositioning rather than just technical noise. Timing Correlation: The 24-hour reversal towards higher turnout expectations began after the recent regional news, suggesting traders are either reacting to or anticipating broader shifts in voter behavior across Latin America, which could be reflected in Costa Rica.

Why This Matters

Following Diario Las Américas’ report on ‘voto castigo’, these angles emerge: Prediction markets are offering a real-time gauge of how broader regional political trends might be impacting specific election dynamics, providing an early signal for journalists to investigate local sentiment.

What To Investigate

Building on Diario Las Américas’ reporting, journalists should verify: – Interview [Costa Rican Election Official]: Are there any early indications or surveys on voter registration and engagement trends for the 2026 election? – Contact [Political Analyst specializing in Costa Rica]: How might regional ‘voto castigo’ trends specifically manifest in Costa Rican turnout, given its unique political landscape? – Review local polling data: Are there any recent non-public polls or surveys indicating shifts in voter enthusiasm or disillusionment that could affect turnout? – Check historical turnout data: How do current pre-election indicators compare to past elections, especially those with similar socio-political contexts?

Context

Costa Rica has a history of relatively stable democratic processes, but regional trends of voter fatigue and ‘voto castigo’ observed across Latin America could introduce new dynamics into the 2026 election turnout. Understanding these broader patterns is crucial for interpreting local market movements.

Confidence & Caveats

This analysis has a Medium confidence level. Signal strength is Medium because delta_24h is 6.28%, a moderate but not exceptionally strong move. Pattern reliability is Medium-High because a clear BEAR_TO_BULL_REVERSAL is observed with strong asymmetry. Market accuracy is around 58-65% for election markets. Data completeness is good, with 24h volume ($4,116.79) and open interest ($1,014.98) available, though news context is not fresh. BUT: The related news is not recent, and the market’s open interest is relatively low for an election market, making it susceptible to amplified movements.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be less than 55%?
  • Market ID: 811287
  • Token ID: 23339881373231634371027562822941969976212234691196157451671016864705113045994
  • Quality Score: 4/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.02
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.06
  • Current Price: $0.88
  • Volume (24h): $4,117
  • Open Interest: $1,015

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.