Prediction markets suggest snow in Seattle this December is becoming significantly MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome crashing from ~74% to 50% in the last 24 hours. This sharp reversal follows a cluster of local news reports about freezing temperatures and light snowfall in the region.
News Timeline
- 10 hours ago: “Seattle Weather: Freezing Nights this Weekend” (FOX 13 Seattle)
- 18 hours ago: “Western Washington sees light snow, then dry stretch with freezing nights ahead” (KING5.com)
- 22 hours ago: “Snow arrives in the Cascades after tumultuous December weather” (The Seattle Times)
Market response: The dramatic crash in the ‘No’ outcome appears to be a direct reaction to the local news reports of light snowfall in Western Washington lowlands and freezing temperatures. The timing strongly suggests these reports were the catalyst.
Asymmetry Analysis
The market shows a dramatic and contradictory reversal. A 7-day trend that saw the ‘No’ outcome rise by 1.7% was completely wiped out by a sudden 24-hour crash of -32.4%. This sharp pivot strongly suggests a recent event has fundamentally altered market perception. The timing aligns perfectly with local news reports from FOX 13 and KING5 about unexpected light snow in the lowlands, indicating traders are reacting swiftly to on-the-ground conditions that challenge the historical rarity of December snow in Seattle.
Why This Matters
This market is a real-time indicator of how hyper-local news can cause rapid shifts in public expectation, even against historical trends. The 24-point crash provides a quantifiable measure of the impact of recent weather reports, offering a data-driven story angle on public perception of a potential ‘White Christmas’ scenario.
What To Investigate
- Contact NWS Seattle: Has the probability forecast for >0.1 inches of snow in Seattle proper changed in the last 24 hours in light of the lowland snow reports?
- Interview local meteorologists: Is the ‘convergence zone’ mentioned by FOX 13 expected to persist or re-form over Seattle, and could it produce the required 0.1 inches of snow?
- Check social media/local forums: Are there widespread, verifiable reports of snow accumulation within Seattle city limits that might precede official NWS confirmation?
- Analyze trading data: Can the volume spike be pinpointed to the hours immediately following the FOX 13 and KING5 reports?
Context
Seattle is known for its mild, wet winters, with significant snowfall being rare. The market’s sharp reversal from a ~74% chance of ‘No’ snow to a 50/50 toss-up indicates that recent minor weather events are having an outsized impact on expectations as the month ends.
Confidence & Caveats
Prediction markets for weather can be volatile. The signal is strong based on the price movement, but the low open interest ($3,496) means the crash could be driven by a small group of traders. The market could be wrong if the observed snowfall doesn’t meet the official 0.1-inch NWS threshold.
Market Metadata
- Market ID: 695470
- Token ID: 24047209472459060922745528647232686849238084644264867600669538032007171188855
- Quality Score: 7/9
- Classification: Sentiment Drift
- 7-Day Trend: 0.02%
- 24-Hour Trend: -0.32%
- Current Price: $0.50
- Volume (24h): $8,849
- Open Interest: $3,496
Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.