Prediction markets suggest a significant shift in sentiment regarding the song ‘I Lied to You – Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Göransson’ winning Best Song at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards, with the ‘No’ outcome seeing a substantial increase in odds.
Asymmetry Analysis
The 7-day trend saw a minor decline of 2.37% for the ‘No’ outcome, but this was sharply reversed in the last 24 hours with a 20.86% increase. This strong asymmetry (a gap of 23.23%) suggests a sudden and significant re-evaluation of the song’s prospects. This could reflect new information, a reaction to the performance of other contenders, or a technical bounce in an illiquid market. The news about other films advancing in Oscar shortlists, while 13 hours old, could be a contributing factor, suggesting a more competitive field.
Interpretation
This sentiment shift appears to reflect a growing market belief that ‘I Lied to You’ might not win the Critics Choice Award for Best Song. The substantial 24-hour jump in ‘No’ odds, despite a slight decline over the week, suggests that traders are factoring in new information or a revised outlook, potentially influenced by the performance of other songs in early awards considerations.
Research Leads
- Contact Critics Choice Association: Are there any unofficial leaks or early buzz regarding potential nominations or frontrunners for Best Song?
- Review industry publications (e.g., Variety, Hollywood Reporter): What are the current expert predictions or early takes on the Best Song category for 2026?
- Analyze other major award shortlists (e.g., Oscars, Golden Globes): How do the advancing contenders in these categories compare to ‘I Lied to You’ and its potential rivals?
Context
The Critics Choice Awards are an important early indicator in the awards season. Significant shifts in prediction markets for these awards often precede broader public or critical consensus, though they can also be speculative.
Confidence & Caveats
Prediction markets for awards categories have a moderate accuracy. This signal is strong due to the magnitude of the 24-hour move, but the market’s low open interest ($194.74) means even small trades can disproportionately influence prices. The related news snippet, while relevant to the awards landscape, is not directly about ‘I Lied to You’ and is 13 hours old, making its direct causal link to the current move less certain.
What Next
The market could watch for further industry buzz or early award season nominations, especially for other major awards like the Golden Globes or Oscars. Any official announcements regarding the Critics Choice Awards’ nomination shortlist (scheduled by December 5, 2025) might trigger significant market shifts. A sustained move above $0.80 could indicate increasing conviction against the song, while a dip below $0.70 might suggest a re-evaluation of its chances.
Market Metadata
- Market ID: 950498
- Token ID: 65057871944669520921574310745917672626844830953970994878229333119291040773605
- Quality Score: 5/9
- Classification: Signal Unclear
- 7-Day Trend: -0.02%
- 24-Hour Trend: 0.21%
- Current Price: $0.77
- Volume (24h): $72
- Open Interest: $195
Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.