Prediction markets show continued bearish sentiment for Timothée Chalamet’s chances to win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards, despite a wave of positive media for his new film. The ‘Yes’ outcome saw a minor decline of -0.35% in the last 24 hours, settling at 0.385. This continues a negative trend over the past seven days, which saw a -4.9% drop from $0.405.
Trend Analysis
The market shows a consistent bearish trend. The 7-day trend saw a significant -4.9% drop, and this negative momentum continued, albeit at a slower pace, with a -0.35% decline in the last 24 hours. This sustained downward pressure is notable because it occurs concurrently with a wave of positive media coverage for ‘Marty Supreme’. This suggests the market is either skeptical of the news’s impact on the actual award outcome or that the positive factors are insufficient to counter underlying bearish sentiment.
Interpretation
This sentiment appears to reflect a market that is discounting the positive buzz surrounding ‘Marty Supreme’ and its star. While the film is clearly generating awards talk, the continued, though slower, decline suggests a consolidation of bearish sentiment or a belief that Chalamet’s chances are not improving despite the positive press.
Research Leads
- Following The Hollywood Reporter’s report on Chalamet’s training for ‘Marty Supreme,’ journalists should investigate: How does his performance in ‘Marty Supreme’ compare to his previous award-nominated roles, and what are early critical consensuses suggesting about its SAG potential?
- Building on the New York Post’s ’10 best movies of 2025′ featuring ‘Marty Supreme,’ journalists should verify: Are other major critics echoing this sentiment, and how does the film’s overall reception impact Chalamet’s individual award chances?
- Interview awards strategists or industry insiders: What are their early predictions for the Male Actor in a Leading Role category, and who are Chalamet’s strongest potential competitors for the 2026 SAG Awards?
Context
SAG Awards for Leading Male Actor are highly competitive. Early market movements like this, especially ahead of nominations, can be sensitive to initial film reviews and industry narratives. The provided ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ reversal type appears inconsistent with the price data, which shows a continued bearish trend.
Confidence & Caveats
Prediction markets for awards categories typically have an accuracy rate ranging from 50-70% this far out from the actual awards. We are confident in the observation of the negative trend and its contrast with recent news. However, the market is illiquid with limited open interest ($322.95), meaning small trades could disproportionately influence price.
What Next
Over the next 24-72 hours, the market could stabilize if the downward pressure subsides. Key indicators to watch include further critical aggregator scores for ‘Marty Supreme’. A rebound above $0.40 might signal a sentiment reversal, while a drop below $0.35 could indicate an acceleration of the bearish trend.
📚 Revision History
- v1: Dec 26, 2025 21:25 UTC (Quality 4) – Original publication ⭐
Market Metadata
- Market ID: 1003598
- Token ID: 16354838631296636417618969820398942029032523849111720469022186143175253127078
- Quality Score: 4/9
- Classification: Sentiment Drift
- 7-Day Trend: 0.06%
- 24-Hour Trend: -0.35%
- Current Price: $0.39
- Volume (24h): $90
- Open Interest: $323
Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.