Markets suggest Quentin Johnston exceeding 36.5 receiving yards is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Under’ outcome declining sharply from approximately 56.9% to 50.5% in 24 hours.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend showed the ‘Under’ outcome rising by 5.28%, suggesting a growing consensus for Johnston to stay under 36.5 yards. However, the last 24 hours saw a sharp reversal, with the ‘Under’ price declining by 6.42%. This strong asymmetry (an 11.7% gap between the 7d and 24h trends) indicates a sudden and significant shift in sentiment. This reversal began shortly after reports of Johnston’s 98-yard performance against the Texans emerged, suggesting a direct correlation.

Interpretation

This market behavior appears to reflect traders quickly repricing Johnston’s potential based on his recent game performance. His 98 receiving yards, including a significant deep play, might be interpreted as a sign of increased involvement or a breakout, making the ‘Over’ outcome more attractive. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ reversal type further supports the idea of a fundamental sentiment shift rather than a mere technical correction.

Research Leads

  • Contact Chargers beat reporters: Is there an increased target share for Johnston planned in upcoming game strategies?
  • Review coach’s statements: Has there been any specific praise or critique of Johnston’s recent performance that could indicate future usage?
  • Analyze fantasy football expert predictions: How are top analysts adjusting Johnston’s projections for the next game after his 98-yard outing?

Context

Quentin Johnston’s rookie season has been inconsistent. This sudden strong performance could be a turning point, or an outlier. The market is weighing this new data against prior expectations.

Confidence & Caveats

Our confidence in this signal is medium-high, driven by the clear reversal pattern and timely news correlation. Sports prediction markets typically have an accuracy rate of 55-65%. The signal could change rapidly with new injury reports, coaching decisions, or further performance data.

What Next

Traders might watch for further news on Quentin Johnston’s role in the Chargers’ offense and any injury updates. A continued decline in the ‘Under’ price could signal increasing conviction for the ‘Over’ on his receiving yards, especially if his target share remains high. Conversely, any reports of reduced snaps or a return to lower usage might trigger a reversal back towards the ‘Under’.

Market Metadata

  • Market ID: 995370
  • Token ID: 74393797061422706875720726752065899342220215345241330087405813746920591745705
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: 0.05%
  • 24-Hour Trend: -0.06%
  • Current Price: $0.51
  • Volume (24h): $35
  • Open Interest: $6,963

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.