Prediction markets suggest a notable shift in sentiment regarding Seattle’s December precipitation, with odds for the city receiving between 6 and 7 inches surging by 35.01% in the last 24 hours. This sudden jump follows a week-long decline, indicating a significant reversal in market expectations.
Asymmetry Analysis
The market showed a 7-day decline of -4.99% for the ‘Yes’ outcome, but then abruptly reversed with a 24-hour surge of +35.01%. This strong asymmetry suggests that new information, or a re-evaluation of existing data, has rapidly changed trader sentiment. The reversal began shortly after recent weather reports from KOMO and The Seattle Times were published, highlighting current and recent weather patterns.
Interpretation
This sentiment shift appears to reflect a market re-evaluation of how recent and upcoming weather events could contribute to Seattle’s total December precipitation. Despite a general outlook for a warmer December, mentions of “cold lowland rain” and the lingering effects of “atmospheric rivers” in recent news snippets could be leading traders to believe the 6-7 inch range is more attainable than previously thought. The market could be adjusting to a more nuanced view where specific storm events, rather than overall temperature, might drive precipitation totals.
Research Leads
- Contact NOAA Seattle: Are their current precipitation models for December showing any significant shifts towards the 6-7 inch range following recent weather patterns?
- Interview local meteorologists (e.g., from KOMO, Seattle Times): How do current short-term forecasts for ‘cold lowland rain’ impact the likelihood of meeting the 6-7 inch total for the entire month?
- Review historical Seattle December precipitation data: What is the historical accuracy of early December forecasts for the entire month’s total, especially during “warmest December” scenarios?
- Investigate the impact of atmospheric rivers (mentioned by The Seattle Times) on total monthly precipitation: How do these events typically contribute to monthly totals in Seattle?
Context
Weather prediction markets, while niche, offer real-time insights into how participants interpret meteorological data and forecasts. This market’s movement highlights the dynamic nature of weather predictions and how sentiment can quickly pivot based on new information, even if it appears to contradict broader trends like a “warmest December.”
Confidence & Caveats
Prediction markets for weather-related outcomes typically have moderate accuracy, influenced by the unpredictable nature of long-range forecasts. The signal strength is high due to the significant 24-hour move, but the market’s low open interest ($72.85) means even small trades can significantly influence the price, making it susceptible to volatility.
What Next
Traders might watch for updated long-range forecasts from NOAA or specific reports on upcoming significant weather systems. A sustained move above $0.50 could signal increased conviction in the ‘Yes’ outcome, while a drop below $0.40 might suggest a return to the prior bearish trend.
Market Metadata
- Market ID: 994867
- Token ID: 73723924817593211462743023025820809067521264266222498041352679150494007981390
- Quality Score: 7/9
- Classification: Market Shift
- 7-Day Trend: -0.05%
- 24-Hour Trend: 0.35%
- Current Price: $0.47
- Volume (24h): $131
- Open Interest: $73
Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.