Markets suggest Ninjas in Pyjamas winning Game 2 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Ninjas in Pyjamas’ outcome falling from 50% to 42.5%. This shift follows the official commencement of the Demacia Cup 2025, which appears to have triggered a re-evaluation of team strengths among prediction market traders.
Asymmetry Analysis
The 7-day trend for Ninjas in Pyjamas showed a slight increase of +1.89%, but this has been sharply reversed in the last 24 hours with a -6.80% decline. This strong asymmetry (gap of 8.69%) suggests that new information or a significant shift in sentiment has recently entered the market, overriding the previous week-long trend. The reversal began shortly after the news from SSBCrack News (10 hours ago) about the Demacia Cup’s commencement, indicating a potential correlation between the tournament’s start and the market’s re-evaluation of team prospects for Game 2.
Interpretation
This sentiment shift appears to reflect a re-assessment of Ninjas in Pyjamas’s chances in Game 2, possibly in light of early tournament dynamics or updated team form. The market could be pricing in a stronger performance from Invictus Gaming, or simply adjusting expectations for Ninjas in Pyjamas as the actual competition begins. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ pattern further suggests a significant loss of confidence in the previously bullish trend for Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Research Leads
- Following SSBCrack News’ report on the Demacia Cup’s start, verify with esports analysts if any pre-tournament scrim results or team roster changes favor Invictus Gaming for Game 2.
- Examine historical performance: How do Invictus Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas typically perform in early tournament stages or specific game maps/modes?
- Interview community managers or content creators for both teams: What is the current team morale or fan sentiment leading into this specific match?
- Monitor official tournament broadcasts and social media: Are there any immediate insights or commentary from casters/analysts that could explain the market shift?
Context
This market focuses on a single game within a larger esports tournament, making it highly sensitive to immediate performance, team momentum, and even psychological factors. The high volume and open interest indicate significant trader engagement, suggesting a well-observed market reacting to perceived real-time shifts.
Confidence & Caveats
Esports markets, especially for individual games, are around 50-60% accurate, as in-game variables can be highly unpredictable. While the signal is strong with clear asymmetry, it is crucial to consider the high volatility inherent in competitive gaming. A strong performance by Ninjas in Pyjamas in Game 1 (if played before Game 2) could quickly reverse this sentiment.
What Next
Traders might closely monitor the live performance and outcome of Game 1 in this series. Any strong showing by Invictus Gaming could solidify the downward trend for Ninjas in Pyjamas in Game 2, while an unexpected win or dominant performance by Ninjas in Pyjamas could trigger a sharp rebound. Key price levels around 40% could act as a support or resistance in the short term.
Market Metadata
- Market ID: 967073
- Token ID: 81216825267922923741270240392241948579453276587542705533487750007496637377122
- Quality Score: 7/9
- Classification: Market Shift
- 7-Day Trend: 0.02%
- 24-Hour Trend: -0.07%
- Current Price: $0.42
- Volume (24h): $261,564
- Open Interest: $113,608
Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.