Markets suggest Most Wanted winning Game 1 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Most Wanted’ outcome dropping from 77.1% to 66.5%. This shift follows a significant 24-hour downturn, sharply reversing a week-long positive trend.
Asymmetry Analysis
The Most Wanted outcome had gained 11.99 percentage points over the last 7 days, rising from approximately 54.5% to 66.5%. However, it sharply reversed in the last 24 hours, falling by 10.62 percentage points from approximately 77.1% to 66.5%. This strong asymmetry (22.61% gap) suggests a sudden shift in sentiment, possibly due to new information or technical trading patterns that contradict the prior trend. Given the general nature of recent Dota 2 news snippets, this reversal does not appear to be directly correlated with any specific breaking news about the Most Wanted vs VP.Prodigy match.
Interpretation
The market appears to be reacting to a perceived weakness or overvaluation of Most Wanted for Game 1, despite their recent upward trend. This could reflect internal team news not yet public, a change in strategy, or strong backing for VP.Prodigy. The overall sentiment in the broader Dota 2 pro scene (as seen in the news snippets) might also contribute to a general cautious outlook, even if not directly linked to this match.
Research Leads
- Contact Most Wanted’s team management or analysts: Are there any roster changes, player health issues, or strategic shifts for the VP.Prodigy match?
- Review recent VODs or scrim results for Most Wanted and VP.Prodigy: Are there performance indicators that might justify this market move?
- Monitor official esports news outlets (e.g., Liquipedia, HLTV) for last-minute updates on team conditions or match preparations.
Context
This market is for a specific game in a specific match. Esports markets are dynamic, with odds highly sensitive to team form, player morale, and even hero picks or bans.
Confidence & Caveats
Esports markets for individual games could be highly volatile. While the 10.62% move is significant, the lack of direct news correlation implies the shift could be technical or based on unconfirmed information. Esports market accuracy is often around 50-60%.
What Next
Traders might watch for pre-match analysis, official team announcements, or early game drafts. A further drop below 60% might signal stronger conviction against Most Wanted.
Related News Sources
- team lynx Most Wanted (Hawk Live, 16 hours ago)
- Dyrachyo named the real reason for refusing to return to the Dota 2 pro scene (Hawk Live, 20 hours ago)
- Watson confirmed Yatoro’s words about the curse of the top-1 Dota 2 ladder (Hawk Live, 18 hours ago)
- Dyrachyo’s girlfriend told how they met: a famous player helped (Hawk Live, 11 hours ago)
- Dyrachyo said why his Dota 2 team fell apart (Hawk Live, 16 hours ago)
Market Metadata
- Market ID: 986957
- Token ID: 35620070043442763355847462961205638562980659294402885919371260644309599588422
- Quality Score: 7/9
- Classification: Market Shift
- 7-Day Trend: 0.12%
- 24-Hour Trend: -0.11%
- Current Price: $0.67
- Volume (24h): $18,468
- Open Interest: $47,280
Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.