Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend had shown the ‘No’ outcome rising by 1.61%, indicating a decreasing likelihood of a draw. However, this trend saw a sharp reversal in the last 24 hours, with the ‘No’ outcome declining by 7.47%. This strong asymmetry, a gap of 9.08% between the 7-day and 24-hour trends, suggests that new information has rapidly shifted market sentiment. The reversal began shortly after reports of Aberdeen’s recent draw against Dundee United (BBC, Evrim Ağacı, 3-7 hours ago) and Celtic’s hard-fought victory (BBC, The Scottish Sun, 15-16 hours ago).

Interpretation

This sentiment shift appears to reflect a market re-evaluation of the draw probability for the upcoming Celtic vs. Aberdeen match. Aberdeen’s recent draw, where they had to be bailed out by a late leveller, could make traders perceive them as more prone to draws, especially against a strong opponent like Celtic. Similarly, Celtic’s recent performance requiring them to come from behind might suggest a less dominant form, potentially increasing the chance of a stalemate. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ reversal type further indicates a rapid and significant change in conviction against a decisive outcome.

Research Leads

  • Contact Celtic FC and Aberdeen FC management for comments on recent team performance and player fitness ahead of their fixture, especially concerning any tactical adjustments.
  • Analyze detailed match statistics for both teams’ recent games, focusing on their propensity for draws, goal-scoring patterns, and defensive vulnerabilities following the reported results (BBC, The Scottish Sun).
  • Interview sports analysts about the impact of Aberdeen’s recent draw and Celtic’s come-from-behind victory on their upcoming match dynamics.
  • Review sports betting markets and expert predictions for any further shifts in odds or new insights regarding a potential draw.

Context

Prediction markets for sports outcomes, particularly draws, are highly sensitive to recent team form, player availability, and tactical approaches. The current market movement suggests a direct reaction to the immediate pre-match context for both teams.

Confidence & Caveats

Our confidence in this signal is Medium-High, driven by the clear price movement and its correlation with recent match results. However, sports prediction markets for single outcomes typically have an accuracy rate of around 50-60% due to the inherent unpredictability of live sports. The signal could be wrong if unforeseen team news emerges, or if the match unfolds in an unexpected manner.

What Next

Traders might watch for any further team news, injury updates, or pre-match comments from coaches that could influence the perceived likelihood of a draw. Any significant shift in betting odds leading up to the match could signal further market conviction. The actual match performance, particularly in the first half, could be crucial.

📚 Revision History

  1. v1: Dec 21, 2025 06:48 UTC (Quality 7) – Original publication ⭐

Market Metadata

  • Market ID: 894375
  • Token ID: 38631557929915657397792332972172705716635985629355407135382499519738704633406
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: 0.02%
  • 24-Hour Trend: -0.07%
  • Current Price: $0.56
  • Volume (24h): $4,635
  • Open Interest: $184,994

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.