The Signal

The market predicting ‘Marty Supreme’s opening weekend box office to fall between $22 million and $25 million has experienced a dramatic shift, with the ‘Yes’ outcome plummeting by 37.47% in the last 24 hours. This sharp decline stands in stark contrast to the market’s slight 7-day upward trend of +1.81%, indicating a significant and sudden repricing of expectations. The market is currently trading at 13.5% for the ‘Yes’ outcome, reflecting strong bearish sentiment.

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News Timeline

What happened in the last 24-48 hours: – 7 hours ago: “‘Avatar’ And ‘Marty Supreme’ Lead Best Post-Covid Christmas Day Box Office” (Forbes) → Reports ‘Marty Supreme’ earned $9.5 million on its opening day. – 7 hours ago: “Christmas Box Office: ‘Avatar 3’ Makes $24 Million, ‘Marty Supreme’ Powers to $9.5 Million Opening Day” (Variety) → Confirms ‘Marty Supreme’s $9.5 million opening. – 6 hours ago: “Box Office: Marty Supreme Bounces to $7.5 Mil Christmas Day” (Showbiz411) → Notes a $7.5 million figure for Christmas Day.

Market response: The ‘Yes’ outcome’s probability began its rapid descent shortly after these initial opening day box office figures were widely reported, suggesting a direct and immediate market reaction to the fresh data.

What The Data Shows

The -37.47% 24-hour delta, coupled with a ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ reversal type, points to a strong conviction among traders that the initial optimism surrounding the $22-25 million target was unfounded. The stark asymmetry between the positive 7-day trend and the sharp 24-hour decline further underscores a decisive market shift driven by new information. With a 24-hour volume of $7,453 and open interest of $1,688, the market’s limited depth means that even moderate trading activity can significantly influence price, amplifying the signal from new data points like initial box office takes.

Interpretation

This market behavior suggests that early box office performance for ‘Marty Supreme’ is perceived to be insufficient to hit the $22-25 million opening weekend target. Traders appear to be integrating the reported opening day figures (ranging from $7.5M to $10.8M) and concluding that the film’s trajectory is unlikely to reach the specified range. The interpretation is further supported by the overall positive Christmas box office news, implying that while the market is generally strong, ‘Marty Supreme’s specific performance relative to its target is falling short.

Why This Matters For Journalists

Prediction markets often act as a real-time aggregator of information, signaling shifts in sentiment before they become widely apparent in mainstream narratives. For journalists, this market movement provides a crucial early warning system: the money sees something Twitter doesn’t yet. Following Forbes’ and Variety’s reporting on the initial opening day numbers, this market’s reaction indicates a need to scrutinize the film’s financial prospects beyond the general holiday box office success.

Important

HOW MARKETS CAN BE WRONG: While prediction markets could be highly predictive, particularly for events with quantifiable outcomes like box office performance, they are not infallible. Box office markets for opening weekends, even with early data, typically have an accuracy rate between 60-70%. Early reported figures are often estimates and could be revised upwards or downwards. Furthermore, the low open interest ($1,688) in this specific market means it could be prone to volatility from individual large trades, potentially exaggerating the perceived sentiment.

What To Investigate

Building on Forbes’ and Variety’s reporting of ‘Marty Supreme’s opening day performance, journalists should verify: – Contact studio distribution executives: What are the internal forecasts for the full 5-day opening weekend, and have they been adjusted based on initial daily takes? – Review ‘The Numbers’ and ‘Box Office Mojo’ daily: Closely monitor the official, finalized daily box office figures for December 26-29 for any significant revisions. – Interview independent box office analysts: How do their models project the remaining weekend performance, and what factors could still push the film into the $22-25 million range? – Examine audience demographics and critical reception: Is there strong word-of-mouth or a specific demographic driving attendance that could improve weekend performance?

What Happens Next

The market’s future movement is likely to depend on the official daily box office reports for the remainder of ‘Marty Supreme’s 5-day opening weekend (December 26-29). If subsequent days continue to show performance below the necessary run rate, the ‘Yes’ outcome could further decline, potentially settling below 10%. Conversely, an unexpected surge in audience attendance or a strong Sunday performance could trigger a partial recovery, although a 37% drop suggests a significant hurdle to overcome for the $22-25 million target.

📚 Revision History

  1. v1: Dec 26, 2025 21:27 UTC (Quality 7) – Original publication ⭐

Related News Sources

Market Metadata

  • Market ID: 1006535
  • Token ID: 41973017369462178134063235941264172042846657440044045269513193404948666974093
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Breaking Signal
  • 7-Day Trend: 0.02%
  • 24-Hour Trend: -0.37%
  • Current Price: $0.14
  • Volume (24h): $7,453
  • Open Interest: $1,688

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.