Markets suggest Khamenei’s removal by February is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 10.86% to 12.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows a significant increase in reports regarding ongoing unrest in Iran and a confirmation of high casualty numbers.

News Timeline

  • 3 hours ago: “Iranian authorities confirmed the death of more than 3,000 people during the protests” (open.kg)
  • 9 hours ago: “Inside Iran’s protests: ‘Either we overthrow the regime, or we are destroyed. We have nothing left to lose’” (AOL.com)
  • 12 hours ago: “Maduro 2.0: What happens if the US removes Iran’s Ayatollah?” (Yahoo)

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend showed a slight decline in the odds of Khamenei’s removal (-1.20%), but the last 24 hours saw a sharp reversal, with odds increasing by 15.07%. This strong asymmetry (16.27% gap) suggests a sudden influx of new information or a significant shift in trader sentiment that overrides previous trends. This reversal began around the time news snippets emerged from open.kg and AOL.com detailing the scale of protest deaths and the intensity of the internal conflict, indicating a direct correlation between the news and the market’s re-evaluation.

Why This Matters

Prediction markets often signal shifts before mainstream media fully grasps underlying dynamics. Following open.kg’s report, these angles emerge, suggesting a potential increase in perceived instability in Iran.

What To Investigate

  • Building on open.kg’s reporting, journalists should verify: Independent casualty counts from human rights organizations to corroborate the official figures of 3,000+ deaths.
  • Contact regional experts: Assess the current level of internal pressure on Khamenei’s regime and whether this level of unrest could realistically trigger a leadership change by February.
  • Review US government statements: Investigate any recent escalations in US posture towards Iran, beyond the Yahoo article’s mention of a ‘Trump armada’, to understand external pressures.
  • Interview Iranian diaspora groups: Gather first-hand accounts and assess the morale and organization of protest movements within Iran.

Context

This market tracks a highly speculative outcome with low absolute odds (currently 12.5%), reflecting the difficulty of predicting leadership changes in authoritarian regimes. However, the market’s sensitivity to recent news, despite the low price, highlights the perceived impact of escalating internal unrest.

Confidence & Caveats

confidence_level: “Medium-High” confidence_components: { “signal_strength”: “Strong because of the 15.07% positive delta in 24 hours.”, “pattern_reliability”: “Low because ‘DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE’ is an ambiguous pattern, often indicating a temporary rebound rather than a sustained trend.”, “market_accuracy”: “Geopolitical markets have an accuracy rate of approximately 60-65% due to high volatility and information asymmetry.”, “data_completeness”: “Good, with clear price movements, volume, open interest, and multiple recent news snippets providing context.” } confidence_caveat: “BUT: The low absolute price (12.5%) for ‘Yes’ means even a significant percentage increase still represents a low overall probability. The ‘DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE’ pattern could also indicate a temporary rebound without fundamental shift.”

Market Metadata

  • Market: Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?
  • Market ID: 1228444
  • Token ID: 53278208813065717614334685705159077956149366574908426524098128705222746079163
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.01
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.15
  • Current Price: $0.12
  • Volume (24h): $49,224
  • Open Interest: $3,093

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.