Markets suggest Trump’s approval rating being between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 23, 2026, is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘No’ outcome rising from 62% to 72% in 24 hours. This shift follows a series of recent news reports discussing a decline in Trump’s approval.
News Timeline
- 5 hours ago: “Promesas incumplidas, agresiones y desvaríos: Trump cae 10 puntos en un año difícil” (SinEmbargo)
- 3 hours ago: “Conmemora Trump su primer año de regreso a la Casa Blanca” (El Porvenir – Portada)
- 13 hours ago: “Aprobación de Trump cae ocho puntos a un año de su segundo mandato” (PolíticoMX)
- 13 hours ago: “Política migratoria de Trump, en su nivel más bajo de aprobación, revelan encuestas” (La Silla Rota)
Market response: The recent news reports, particularly those from 5 and 13 hours ago detailing drops in Trump’s approval ratings, correlate with the market’s 24-hour shift, suggesting a timely reaction to the reported decline in public sentiment.
Asymmetry Analysis
The 7-day trend saw the ‘No’ outcome for Trump’s approval rating range slightly decline by 0.27%, suggesting a stable or slightly increasing likelihood of his approval falling into the target range. However, the last 24 hours witnessed a sharp reversal, with the ‘No’ outcome surging by 16.23%. This strong asymmetry (a gap of 16.5%) suggests new information arrived that significantly changed sentiment regarding Trump’s approval, pushing the market against its recent short-term trend. This reversal appears to coincide with the recent news snippets reporting a decline in Trump’s approval ratings.
Why This Matters
Following various media reports indicating a decline in Trump’s approval, the market is repricing the likelihood of his rating falling within the 42.0-42.4% range. This signal offers journalists a real-time, aggregated sentiment that could precede official poll releases or provide an alternative perspective on public opinion.
What To Investigate
Building on SinEmbargo’s report from 5 hours ago regarding Trump’s 10-point drop, journalists should verify: What are the specific methodologies of the latest polls showing a decline in Trump’s approval rating, and which demographics are driving this shift? Following PolíticoMX’s report from 13 hours ago on an 8-point drop, journalists should investigate: Have there been any recent policy decisions or public statements by Trump that could have specifically triggered this downturn in sentiment? Interview political strategists: How might a sustained approval rating outside the 42.0-42.4% range impact Trump’s upcoming political agenda or re-election prospects? Check recent voter sentiment data: Are there any specific issues or controversies that are currently impacting public perception of Trump, making his approval rating less likely to stabilize within the target range?
Context
This market tracks a very specific range for Trump’s approval rating, making it highly sensitive to small fluctuations in broader polling aggregates. The current movement reflects a market-driven reassessment of his political standing, which often anticipates or confirms shifts observed in traditional polling data.
Confidence & Caveats
Historically, political approval rating markets tend to have a moderate accuracy, around 60-70%, as they aggregate diverse opinions. However, this market’s narrow target range (42.0-42.4%) introduces higher volatility. The observed ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ pattern suggests the recent price surge could be a temporary correction rather than a sustained trend, meaning the market might revert if fresh data does not confirm the current sentiment.
Market Metadata
- Market: Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 23, 2026?
- Market ID: 1197786
- Token ID: 57048242107767400485422415498965623563440439194759269643552936047046210497
- Quality Score: 7/9
- Classification: Market Shift
- 7-Day Trend: $-0.00
- 24-Hour Trend: $0.16
- Current Price: $0.72
- Volume (24h): $4,741
- Open Interest: $1,446
Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.