Prediction markets suggest the likelihood of Polymarket achieving 80% mindshare is collapsing, with the ‘Yes’ outcome plummeting from 54.5% to 16.5% in just 24 hours. The crash directly correlates with news that X (formerly Twitter) has banned crypto reward applications, impacting Kaito, the official data source for this market.

News Timeline

What happened in the last 24 hours: – 18 hours ago: Reports emerge that X has updated its API rules to ban reward-based InfoFi apps. (Source: Yellow.com) – 16 hours ago: KAITO token price reported to have plummeted 20% following the news. (Source: CryptoRank) – 11 hours ago: Kaito announces a “strategic pivot” and the shutdown of its ‘Yaps’ service. (Source: CryptoRank) – 2-4 hours ago: Deeper analysis of the “platform risk” for Web3 apps built on platforms like X circulates. (Source: Binance, MEXC)

Market Response

The market began its sharp decline as the news broke and accelerated after Kaito confirmed the shutdown of its Yaps service, which is explicitly mentioned in the market’s resolution details.

Why This Matters

This is a clear, real-time example of “platform risk,” where a Web3 project’s viability is threatened by a policy change from a centralized tech giant (X). It’s a critical story angle for anyone covering the creator economy, Web3 infrastructure, and the power dynamics between big tech and decentralized applications.

What To Investigate

  • Is the Kaito Information Markets Arena page, the specific resolution source, still operational and updating?
  • Has Polymarket or Kaito issued a statement on how this affects the integrity of markets relying on their data?
  • Are other InfoFi or SocialFi apps that rely on X’s API facing similar existential threats? Who are the next potential victims?
  • What is the financial and user impact on Kaito following the Yaps shutdown?

Context

This event highlights the centralized points of failure that still exist in many so-called “decentralized” applications. The market’s reaction is not just about Polymarket’s mindshare but about the systemic risk to any project building on another company’s proprietary platform.

Confidence & Caveats

The signal is extremely strong due to the direct causal link between the news and the market’s data source. BUT, the market could see a partial rebound if Kaito announces a viable workaround or if the impact on the specific mindshare data feed is proven to be minimal.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?
  • Market ID: 693563
  • Token ID: 22596144668088840298154346527026796186267566004083702773873606836004981529798
  • Quality Score: 8/9
  • Classification: Breaking Signal
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.01
  • 24-Hour Trend: $-0.38
  • Current Price: $0.17
  • Volume (24h): $277,208
  • Open Interest: $7,348

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.