Markets suggest Khamenei’s potential ousting by January 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 8.22% to 13.45%. This shift follows renewed reports of widespread protests and calls for their continuation from exiled figures, appearing to reignite sentiment among prediction market traders.

News Timeline

  • 11 hours ago (BBC): “Iran medics describe hospitals overwhelmed with dead and injured protesters”
  • 12 hours ago (DW): “Iran: Exiled crown prince calls for protests to continue”
  • 14 hours ago (Слободен печат): “VIDEO | Iranian women burn photos of Khamenei to light cigarettes”

Market response: The market’s upward movement in the last 24 hours appears to correlate with these fresh reports of escalating protests and opposition calls, suggesting traders are repricing the event based on new information.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend saw the ‘Yes’ outcome decline by 8.40%, suggesting a decreasing likelihood of Khamenei’s ousting. However, this trend sharply reversed in the last 24 hours, with a 5.23% increase. This strong asymmetry indicates a significant shift in sentiment, likely driven by new information rather than a continuation of the previous trend. The timing of this reversal appears to coincide with recent news of intensifying protests and calls for their continuation, suggesting a fundamental repricing of the event’s probability.

Why This Matters

Markets appear to be reacting swiftly to on-the-ground developments in Iran, potentially signaling a disconnect between public perception and the reality of the regime’s stability. Following BBC’s reporting on overwhelmed hospitals, these angles emerge for journalists:

What To Investigate

  • Building on BBC’s reporting, journalists should verify with human rights organizations: Can the reports of overwhelmed hospitals and casualties from security forces be independently confirmed, and what is the current scale of the crackdown?
  • Following DW’s report, journalists should interview regional experts on Iran: How significant are calls for continued protests from figures like the exiled crown prince, and what is their practical impact on galvanizing further anti-regime action?
  • Building on the reports of escalating protests, journalists should track international diplomatic responses: Are there any unannounced or escalating diplomatic pressures being applied to the Iranian regime beyond public statements, particularly following reports of renewed unrest?
  • Following Slobodenpecat’s report, journalists should monitor social media and citizen journalist networks: Are there further verifiable signs of escalating unrest or new forms of defiance, such as the burning of Khamenei’s photos, that could indicate deeper public discontent?

Context

The market tracks a specific derivative related to Khamenei’s potential ousting, which often reacts sensitively to signs of internal instability or external pressure. Historically, leadership changes in authoritarian regimes are hard to predict, but sustained public dissent is a key indicator.

Confidence & Caveats

The market accuracy for geopolitical leadership changes is inherently low, given the opaque nature of such events. This signal reflects a rapid short-term repricing, but the fundamental outcome remains highly uncertain. BUT: Geopolitical events are highly unpredictable and can shift quickly based on new information or escalating tensions.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday?
  • Market ID: 1140308
  • Token ID: 51594317668018965465813002853327514421401161138455143613820745442403424813889
  • Quality Score: 6/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.08
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.05
  • Current Price: $0.13
  • Volume (24h): $74,484
  • Open Interest: $3,320

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.