Markets suggest RSF’s capture of Dilling is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome declining from 38.6% to 33.0% in the last 24 hours. This shift follows reports of intensified fighting in the Kordofan region.

Asymmetry Analysis

The ‘Yes’ outcome for RSF capturing Dilling had shown an upward trend over the last 7 days, rising by 3.84 percentage points. However, this trend sharply reversed in the last 24 hours, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling by 5.57 percentage points. This strong asymmetry (a gap of 9.41%) suggests that new, impactful information has arrived, overriding the previous bullish sentiment. The reversal began shortly after recent news, particularly the reports of intensified fighting in Sudan’s Kordofan region 8-10 hours ago, which could indicate a significant shift in the ground situation or a re-evaluation of the RSF’s capabilities.

Why This Matters

This market signal provides a real-time assessment of the changing military dynamics in Sudan, offering a contrarian view to any prior assumptions about the RSF’s momentum. Following Critical Threats’ and Savage Minds’ reporting, these angles emerge for journalists to investigate the immediate impact of recent conflict escalations on the humanitarian situation and military objectives.

What To Investigate

  • Building on Critical Threats’ reporting (10h ago) on RSF breakthroughs in South Central Sudan, journalists should verify: What is the current on-the-ground situation and territorial control specifically around Dilling and its immediate vicinity?
  • Following Savage Minds’ report (8h ago) on intensified fighting in Kordofan, journalists should investigate: Are there any independent reports or satellite imagery confirming the displacement figures and the impact on RSF supply lines or troop movements towards Dilling?
  • Contact UN or humanitarian sources: What are the latest assessments on civilian casualties and humanitarian access in the Kordofan region, and how might this affect the conflict’s progression towards Dilling?

Context

The ongoing civil war in Sudan involves complex and rapidly evolving ground dynamics. The market’s shift reflects the high uncertainty and the significant impact of conflict developments on specific military objectives like the capture of Dilling. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ pattern suggests a significant and possibly sustained change in market belief regarding the RSF’s success.

Confidence & Caveats

Geopolitical prediction markets for specific military outcomes typically have an accuracy rate of 60-70%. This signal appears strong due to the clear reversal pattern and recent news correlation. However, the market’s limited depth ($459 open interest) means even moderate trading volume could lead to amplified price movements. The situation on the ground could also change rapidly, invalidating current market sentiment.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Will the RSF capture Dilling by January 31?
  • Market ID: 996414
  • Token ID: 28925601457585818597976884682733220564275087969375241094042405298821715345883
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $0.04
  • 24-Hour Trend: $-0.06
  • Current Price: $0.33
  • Volume (24h): $14,414
  • Open Interest: $459

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.