Markets suggest an Insurrection Act invocation by March 31 is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome rising from 17.0% to 29.0%. This shift follows recent news regarding National Guard preparations and discussions around the Insurrection Act.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend saw ‘Yes’ odds slightly decline by 0.40%, but the last 24 hours witnessed a sharp reversal, with odds increasing by 12.05%. This significant asymmetry (a gap of 12.45%) suggests a sudden influx of new information or a strong shift in sentiment, rather than a continuation of existing trends.

This asymmetry suggests: – New information arrived regarding potential domestic unrest or specific government preparations for such events. – A re-evaluation of the political climate, possibly influenced by the White House’s re-litigation of Jan. 6, which could heighten perceptions of future ‘insurrection’ scenarios. – Technical trading activity, such as a ‘DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE’ following a previous decline, although the news context suggests a more fundamental shift.

The reversal began roughly 2-3 hours ago, coinciding with reports from Minnesota Reformer and NBC News detailing National Guard preparations following an ICE-related incident, which appears to have reignited concerns about federal intervention.

Why This Matters

Markets see things Twitter doesn’t yet. Following the reports of National Guard activity and the White House’s Jan. 6 statements, these angles emerge for journalists:

What To Investigate

Building on Minnesota Reformer’s reporting, journalists should verify: – Contact Department of Justice: Are there any ongoing internal discussions or contingency plans related to the Insurrection Act for domestic unrest scenarios, especially in light of recent National Guard activities? – Interview constitutional law experts: What are the legal thresholds and political implications for invoking the Insurrection Act in the current climate, considering the White House’s recent statements on Jan. 6? – Review White House communications: Has there been any shift in rhetoric or policy statements that might indicate a higher likelihood of federal intervention in response to civil disorder? – Poll local law enforcement/National Guard contacts: Are there any unannounced directives or increased readiness levels beyond publicly reported incidents, particularly in states experiencing civil unrest like Minnesota?

Context

The market’s previous downward trend likely reflected a general sentiment against such extreme measures. However, recent events, coupled with the ongoing political polarization and specific discussions around past ‘insurrection’ events, appear to be prompting a re-evaluation of the likelihood of the Insurrection Act being invoked.

Confidence & Caveats

Political markets for specific event outcomes typically have an accuracy rate of 60-70%. The ‘DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE’ pattern, while observed, has a historical success rate of only ~35%, meaning a high probability of another reversal. Furthermore, the market’s limited depth means even small trades can influence price significantly, potentially amplifying minor shifts in sentiment.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?
  • Market ID: 1117273
  • Token ID: 67407521702645458929062732294094822936733353995729232239893818243600608970925
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.00
  • 24-Hour Trend: $0.12
  • Current Price: $0.29
  • Volume (24h): $2,831
  • Open Interest: $651

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.