Markets suggest Daniel Biss’s nomination for IL-09 is becoming significantly MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome plummeting from 63.6% to 32.5% in the last 24 hours. This sharp reversal follows a major endorsement by U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky.

News Timeline

  • 8 hours ago: “Schakowsky backs Biss to take over congressional seat” (Evanston RoundTable)
  • 7 hours ago: “Schakowsky endorses Biss” (Politico)
  • 4 hours ago: “U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky backs Daniel Biss as congressional successor” (The Daily Northwestern)
  • 1 hour ago: “U.S. Rep. Schakowsky endorses Evanston Mayor Biss to take her congressional seat” (ABC7 Chicago)

Market response: This surge in Biss’s prospects directly coincides with a series of news reports starting approximately 8 hours ago, culminating in multiple outlets confirming U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky’s endorsement of Biss for her congressional seat.

Asymmetry Analysis

The market shows a stark trend reversal. Over the first six days of the week, the ‘No’ outcome (Biss NOT nominee) drifted slightly upwards from 60% to 63.6%, suggesting a slight decrease in his perceived nomination chances. However, this trend reversed dramatically in the last 24 hours, with the ‘No’ outcome plummeting by over 31 percentage points to 32.5%. This sharp reversal indicates that the recent endorsement news from Rep. Schakowsky acted as a powerful catalyst, completely overturning the prior market sentiment.

Why This Matters

Markets often react to ground-level shifts before traditional polls. This strong reversal signals a potential turning point in the IL-09 primary, providing journalists with crucial research angles to verify sentiment on the ground. Following ABC7 Chicago’s report, these angles emerge:

What To Investigate

  1. Building on ABC7 Chicago’s reporting, journalists should verify: Has Rep. Schakowsky’s endorsement translated into immediate grassroots support or fundraising boosts for Daniel Biss?
  2. Contact Daniel Biss’s campaign: What are their internal polling numbers showing post-endorsement, and how do they compare to rivals?
  3. Review FEC filings for IL-09 candidates: How has fundraising trended in the last 30 days for Biss versus other contenders, especially since the endorsement?
  4. Interview local political reporters in IL-09: What is the current assessment of Biss’s ground game and voter reception in the district following this major endorsement?

Context

Endorsements from retiring incumbents can significantly shape primary races, especially in crowded fields. This market’s movement suggests traders are pricing in a tangible impact from Rep. Schakowsky’s backing, potentially consolidating support for Biss amidst other contenders.

Confidence & Caveats

Primary markets for U.S. elections typically exhibit an accuracy rate of ~58-65%. While the signal strength is very high due to the significant 24-hour move, the market’s relatively low open interest ($564) and volume ($385) could amplify the impact of smaller trades. This signal could change if rival campaigns secure counter-endorsements or if new polling data emerges that contradicts the current market sentiment.

Related News Sources

Market Metadata

  • Market: Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?
  • Market ID: 703912
  • Token ID: 87138886338803690966189519615724968337140703583536608936756941718727622150140
  • Quality Score: 8/9
  • Classification: Breaking Signal
  • 7-Day Trend: $-0.02
  • 24-Hour Trend: $-0.31
  • Current Price: $0.33
  • Volume (24h): $385
  • Open Interest: $564

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.