Markets suggest Khamenei’s exit as Supreme Leader by March 31 is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome declining from 26.9% to 19.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows widespread protests in Iran, which appear to have been met with a brutal crackdown, potentially solidifying the regime’s immediate control.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend showed a slight increase in Khamenei’s potential exit by 1.51%, but the last 24 hours saw a sharp reversal, with ‘Yes’ odds falling by 7.37%. This strong asymmetry suggests that recent developments, particularly the intense crackdown on protests and associated international statements, have significantly shifted short-term sentiment, overriding any previous momentum for regime change.

Why This Matters

Following reports of escalating violence and international responses, these angles emerge: Prediction markets provide a real-time sentiment gauge, often ahead of traditional polling, offering early insights into the perceived stability of the Iranian regime. This signal suggests that despite widespread unrest, traders currently see a lower immediate probability of Khamenei’s removal.

What To Investigate

Building on the recent reporting, journalists should verify: 1. Contact Iranian opposition groups: How are they assessing the impact of the recent crackdown on protest momentum and their ability to organize? 2. Review UN Human Rights reports: What are the latest figures on casualties and arrests, and how do they compare to previous protest waves in Iran? 3. Interview regional experts: How might the US ‘Locked and Loaded’ statement by Trump influence the regime’s internal response or its calculus regarding external support? 4. Track international sanctions: Are there any new proposals or discussions in the UN or EU regarding Iran’s human rights violations or political stability?

Context

The market’s current low price (19.5%) for Khamenei’s exit by March 31st reflects the inherent difficulty and high risk associated with regime change in a highly controlled state like Iran. Historically, such markets are highly sensitive to internal stability cues and external pressure, often seeing rapid shifts based on breaking news from the region.

Confidence & Caveats

Geopolitical markets, especially those concerning authoritarian regimes, typically have a historical accuracy between 55-65% due to their inherent unpredictability and the opacity of information. While the 7.37% 24-hour move is notable, it’s not an extreme shift. The market’s depth ($94k OI) is substantial, but a ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ pattern, while clear, could be influenced by a few large trades rather than a broad consensus, especially at these lower price points. BUT: Geopolitical events are inherently volatile and can shift rapidly based on new information, escalating conflicts, or internal power dynamics within authoritarian regimes.

Market Metadata

  • Market: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
  • Market ID: 916732
  • Token ID: 70771354585365381988139008309072205730081182435161568795508496003376222185889
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: $0.02
  • 24-Hour Trend: $-0.07
  • Current Price: $0.20
  • Volume (24h): $1,263,403
  • Open Interest: $94,029

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.